What's up with betting lines?

 Jones comes out as a favorite over Shogun.



Davis is the favorite over Lil' Nog.



Maynard is the favorite over Edgar.





Is anyone else confused by this?

Rent a monkey, give him darts & a dartboard & you too can be an MMA oddsmaker.

My bookmaker has Edgar over Maynard...

But I guess Lil Nogs unimpressive performance over Brilz swayed them..

And Shoguns layoff coupled with Jones's last few performances..

Maybe a bit surprising but understandable

 That's really what it seems like, Meanie.



I know anyone and their mother can make a Top 10 list, but, it seems like oddsmakers would use a safer approach when making these odds.





The reasons don't really make too much sense to me.

I'm not that shocked that Jones is favored, but that's me, I can see how people would think Shogun is a favorite, but I am shocked at how big of a favorite Jones is.

 Maynard is not the favorite over Edgar.

Phil Davis is going to destroy Lil Nog.

Jon Jones is hyped as the next uberstar.  I like Shogun in that fight.

I did read an explanation but I can't remember where. It's got something to do with hardcore fans not betting big sums of money, so sometimes the favourite opens as a slight underdog and the line changes as the bets start flowing in.

Badlands Meanie - I'm not that shocked that Jones is favored, but that's me, I can see how people would think Shogun is a favorite, but I am shocked at how big of a favorite Jones is.


 I was more shocked at Davis over Lil' Nog.



Do you guys think Athleticism is playing too big a role in the odds?

Tom O Bedlam - 
Badlands Meanie - I'm not that shocked that Jones is favored, but that's me, I can see how people would think Shogun is a favorite, but I am shocked at how big of a favorite Jones is.

 I was more shocked at Davis over Lil' Nog.

Do you guys think Athleticism is playing too big a role in the odds?


He's undefeated, and it seems when MMA fighters get around that 8-0, 9-0, 10-0 mark people start to wonder "is this guy ever going to lose?" Lil Nog is also coming off a loss, I think those are probably 2 big factors, but yeah I would say oddsmakers seem to like athletic guys like him, Jones, Lesnar.

You guys don't understand how a book works.

When a book makes a line, they aren't choosing who they think they will win. They choose the line so half the money falls on one guy, and the other half of the public's money falls on the other guy.

Then the book makes easy guaranteed money due to the juice or spread.

So, the line is set by the public in a way. As money comes in, the line is moved so the money stays balanced between the 2 fighters.

If you see a line you think is off, it's due to the betting public, not what the book thinks is going to happen.

In a perfect bet, the book doesn't care who won. They make money no matter which fighter wins when the money falls 50-50 on each guy.

Hope that's clear and corrects any wrong assumptions in this thread.

Tenor still 10ing - You guys don't understand how a book works.

When a book makes a line, they aren't choosing who they think they will win. They choose the line so half the money falls on one guy, and the other half of the public's money falls on the other guy.

Then the book makes easy guaranteed money due to the juice or spread.

So, the line is set by the public in a way. As money comes in, the line is moved so the money stays balanced between the 2 fighters.

If you see a line you think is off, it's due to the betting public, not what the book thinks is going to happen.

In a perfect bet, the book doesn't care who won. They make money no matter which fighter wins when the money falls 50-50 on each guy.

Hope that's clear and corrects any wrong assumptions in this thread.


after a lot of betting has taken place the lines are adjusted for that, but the opening lines and first day or 2 of odds are set by the oddsmakers, and often THAT determines how people are going to bet. If the opening line is such that people feel they can make a ton of money off 1 fighter that is going to skew the betting, so it's still the oddsmakers setting the odds. Jones opened as a big favorite, which was the oddsmakers doing, as no bets had yet taken place.

Tenor still 10ing - You guys don't understand how a book works.



When a book makes a line, they aren't choosing who they think they will win. They choose the line so half the money falls on one guy, and the other half of the public's money falls on the other guy.



Then the book makes easy guaranteed money due to the juice or spread.



So, the line is set by the public in a way. As money comes in, the line is moved so the money stays balanced between the 2 fighters.



If you see a line you think is off, it's due to the betting public, not what the book thinks is going to happen.



In a perfect bet, the book doesn't care who won. They make money no matter which fighter wins when the money falls 50-50 on each guy.



Hope that's clear and corrects any wrong assumptions in this thread.


 Not even close to true.



If the favorite is -1000, and the underdog is +800...



Let's say it's a big fight, 10 million total bet.



You are saying the book wants 5 million on each side?  If the underdog wins they are paying out 40 million and only took in 5 million worth of losing tickets...a 35 million dollar loss.

jjj2121 - 
 Not even close to true.

If the favorite is -1000, and the underdog is +800...

Let's say it's a big fight, 10 million total bet.

You are saying the book wants 5 million on each side?  If the underdog wins they are paying out 40 million and only took in 5 million worth of losing tickets...a 35 million dollar loss.


100% true.

Your math skills just need a little help.

If the money is half to each fighter according to the odds then yes, the book makes money on the spread alone.

In your Faber's case, at -1,000 the book would need 90.91% of the money to be on Faber, and 9.19% on his opponent.

That is what is meant by half on one fighter, and half on the other. So that each fighter's payout to gamblers is 50-50 of the total money wagered.

So, the "50-50" IS ACCORDING TO THE ODDS SPREAD.

It isn't that hard, guys.

Or is it?

Badlands Meanie - 
after a lot of betting has taken place the lines are adjusted for that, but the opening lines and first day or 2 of odds are set by the oddsmakers, and often THAT determines how people are going to bet. If the opening line is such that people feel they can make a ton of money off 1 fighter that is going to skew the betting, so it's still the oddsmakers setting the odds. Jones opened as a big favorite, which was the oddsmakers doing, as no bets had yet taken place.


Okay, yes the book sets the line. Of course.

But they set it so the wager is balanced. They want half the action on one fighter, and half on the other fighter (according to the odds! duh).

No book predicts the winner and then profits when the public bets the other way.

That would be crazy, and not nearly as profitable as a strategy.

The book wants to profit from the spread. That is guaranteed and easy money.

What do you think a spread is?

And how would a book be CONSISTENTLY profitable if it needed one fighter to win, and one to lose every fight?

The book shouldn't care who wins the fight.

If the bets are balanced, they make money ON EVERY FIGHT.

That's the only way to profit off EVERY fight.

Clear now?