It certainly feels like Islam is coming for the division. I don’t get the impression yet that he’s at Khabib’s level, but it sort of feels like when Khabib was fighting RDA. Everyone had a sense that this Russian monster was coming for the whole division.
I wouldn’t bet on anyone over Islam. The people listed below are people I give a 51% chance to get the win, but could easily be wrong.
At this point, I think I’d pick Chandler over Islam until Islam picks up a genuinely great win. Chandler has excellent standup, and very very good wrestling.
I’d pick Dustin based on experience and quality wins. Islam can absolutely get Dustin down, but I don’t see Islam with the punishing top game Khabib used against Dustin.
I think that’s it. I don’t think that Charles has the TDD to stop Islam. I think Gaethje could put Islam away early, but his submission defense is too porous for me to pick him. It’s possible that Hooker could use his length and knees to punish Islam, but I just can’t pick him to get the win.
I think he beats Dustin and Charles, but I’d give Charles better odds because of his offensive guard. I have a hunch that Poirier would struggle with both staying on his feet and with generating offense from his back
Who do I pick over Islam and why? Well I consider him the favorite vs anyone at 55 right now even if only a slight favorite vs a few guys like Dustin and Charles. I think Islam can sub Gaethje or Chandler but I also know he won’t be able to take them down at will despite the fact he currently the highest takedown finishing rate in the LW division he has not been in there with a Gaethje or Chandler yet. They also have more power in their hands and have been in more wars, a lot more. At the moment Islam gets hit less than any other UFC LW per mmajunkie stats I just read.
Anyway, I don’t see tonight being too competitive. A UD for Makhachev with a 10-8 thrown in there is most likely IMO.
I’m curious if Islam has a weak chin. To his credit he doesn’t get hit often so I genuinely don’t know. He’s beatable and definitely not another Khabib. I’m not sure he beats anyone in the top 5 but I could be dead wrong. Time will tell.
I think Dustin matches up best. I do not think Islam is anywhere near Khabib’s level, so bringing that fight up as a knock on Dustin is moot, IMO. Oliveira is too small and would get his BJJ nullified by Islam in my eyes.
