Who is ahead in the hand here?

Who is ahead in the hand here?

I will let you decide and give the answer in the following post.


Posted: Tue Jun 15, 2004 12:08 am Post subject: What were the odds?

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I was playing a 6 man single table tournament with only the top two getting any cash.

Early in the tournament, I had 8-9 hearts and was able to limp in from the big blind.

Now, there were 4 people in the hand and the blinds were 50/100 so there was 200 in the pot preflop.

Well the flop comes down, 7-8-9 - all clubs.

So i got two pair on the flop, but there is a straight/flush, all sorts of hands that could beat me.

I check it to see what happens and it is check to the UTG who goes all in for 3100.

I knew it wasnt even worth calling 3100 for a 200 pot, even with the two pair.

Everyone folded to him and he flipped over pocket 10s, with one being a club.

Now the question arises, who was ahead in the hand if I did go all in?

Was I the underdog in this instance, even though I had the two pair?

He had a lot of outs to crush my hand.


He is the favorite!

He had 20 outs on the flop and then 23 on the turn. Open-end staight flush draws are about a 54% favorite to improve to at least a straight with two cardsto come, add the two tens and pair the board outs, so he's definitely a favorite to win with 2 cards to come. If anything, you should have been glad he bet that much and pushed you out.


So from the turn to river, exactly half the deck is working for him! I can't even think of a hypothetical situation where you would be in better shape.

Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 9c 8c 7c


cards win %win
9h 8h 343 34.65
Tc Th 635 64.14

He is a 2:1 favorite, could you believe that!

he was a 64.7% favorite after the flop to win. good fold.

if he got no help on the turn, you would have been exactly even money to win at that point.

You pussies should learn some math instead of relying
on your simulators!!

Regardless of the odds, I'm sure you could find a better situation to get all your chips in with. It's an easy fold.

I know its an easy fold, as stated above.

I was just curious who was ahead at the time i folded.

Btw, this was a live game. I did use math, I just came hme and plugged the numbers in for concrete evidence.

"You pussies should learn some math instead of relying on your simulators!!"

lol. i wish poker actually worked out like the odds and the math says. i usually just calculate the odds of hands after i get home to torture myself and see how bad my bad beats were...my worst one, i was a 99.9% favorite after the flop and 99.7% after the turn and still lost. that hand sucked.

lol, is that from Trigg, Mac?