What % chance do you see each fighter having? I think it's something like:
1% Giant Silva
I think Fedor will win it, so I have to put him above 50%. But there are so many things that could happen that I don't think you can give him any higher than 55% with 7 other fighters still in it. Especially with 2 fights in one night on the last card.
Mino's chances are next best, and his best chance is if Fedor gets hurt or upset and then Mino wouldn't have to face him. However I don't think Mino beating Fedor is impossible either.
Ogawa I give the next best chances, but I don't see any way Ogawa wins legitimately. It's the Japanese legend/work factor that puts Ogawa in the running.
Randleman actually could beat anyone in the competition I think. He'd have the most problems with Mino because Mino's got the mad subs, but I think Randleman's got a decent shot at beating anyone but Mino or Fedor.
Schilt always has that puncher's chance. The guy is a monster, and with big KO power like that, all it would take is a couple lucky punches/kicks before Minor or Fedor or Randleman can get him to the ground, and he could find himself in the finals just like that. Very unlikely, but not impossible.
Kharitonov looked great against Ninja, but there are too many unknowns about this guy to give him good chances...he just doesn't have the experience to hang with most of the guys, but he also has a wildcard chance to make some huge waves sorta like Fedor did (he came into Pride as a relative unknown as well.)
Herring is a great all around fighter, but as has been proven in the past, he just seems to come up short against the elite guys. While I actually think he's one of the better fighters left, I don't see him having much chance of beating Fedor or Mino, and as such his chances of winning it all are slim to none.
Giant Silva has no shot. But, you just never know, so I'll give him a 1% chance.
Looking forward to seeing the matchups for the next round! That could definitely have an impact on the chances of each fighter as well...
What % chance do you see each fighter having? I think it's something like:
I'd give Randleman a better chance than Ogawa as well
Fedor all the way.
I definitely didn't say 'with complete certainty' that he doesn't have enough experience to do well...in fact my whole point was that we don't reall y know enough about the guy to say ANYTHING with 'complete certainty.' What I said was that I don't think he has enough experience to give him a good chance of winning the whole tournament, too many unknowns. If you'll notice, the very next thing I said was that the 'unknown' isn't always a bad thing, as we didn't know much about Fedor at first and look how he turned out. My point was that Kharitonov sure looked good, but it's too early to be picking him ahead of some of the more proven guys.
Fedor is the only one left whoose judo may be strong enough to stop Ogawa. As I would give Fedor a slight edge in stiking, I can see him beating Ogawa in the final but it will be a war!
I didn't cop out of anything. That was the part you chose to ignore the first time. My point was that, yes, Sergei looked great, but it's too early to be calling him a favorite.
I suppose I could have worded it more precisely, but this isn't a term paper...I think I made my point, you just chose to ignore parts of it. Either way it's not really worth arguing about any further.
I think Sergei is good. I don't think he's a favorite to win the tournament. The jury is still out on the guy.
Giant Gilva combined 0%
Ogawa has legit skills but he doesn't train for MMA. Enormous potential.
A lot of this has to do with how they set the brackets.
"Fedor 50% Mino 20% Sergei 20% Randleman 5% Ogawa 5%
Herring, Schilt, Giant Gilva combined 0%"
I wouldn't count Herring or especially Schilt out...longshots for sure, but both of them have enough experience and weapons to pull out a couple big wins. I also think 20% is too high for Sergei at this point, but you never know. But to say he's equal to Mino is quite a lot based on 1 fight.
Nogueira. he's the hungriest.
LOL, that's probably true.
Bas: What's the first thing you do when you get up in the morning?
Giant Silva (his eyes get really wide and then he says:) BREAKFASSS!
lol. i know
I would say;
Fedor 60% chance
Kharitonov 25% chance
Mino 12% chance
Rest of Field: 3%
The BIG X factor is who DSE decides to put against who in the final 4.
Who will win the GP?
There was once a baby boy born in Brazil, he seemed like a normal young man. His name was Antonio Rodrigo Nogeuira. He would play with his friends, hug his mom and look up to his father. One day he had a horrible accident, a big truck ran over the unsuspecting boy. He spent some days in a coma, weeks in the hospital, and many painful months in rehab fighting for his ability to live a normal life. One day he was once again able to go out and play, and run to his parents, and be normal again. Only his wasn't just another kid. One day they would call him The Minotauro.
Not only would he overcome his injuries, he would go on to become a Jiu Jitsu wizard and great fighter. He would win two world Jiu Jitsu championships and go on to win the Pride HW championship. First beating the master of GNP in Mark Coleman and later Heath Herring. Later he would become a legend in his own time in Japan, slaying the giant in Bob Sapp. He would dominate for quite some time.
The Minotaur would go on to be one of the favorites in Japan. A modern Samurai in every way via transplant from Brazil. His great trainer Mario Zen Sperry and others would always be at his side. Once he caught the eye of a beautiful young woman from Japan named Eiko Koike, she was brought to tears of joy at his victories and tears of dispair at his pain. Everyone thought he couldn't be stopped, he was the modern Rickson Gracie, what he was to Jiu Jitsu Minotauro was to MMA. Then one day something happened once again to change the life of the Minotauro.
A man with a plan from Russia with dynamite in both fists and eyes that were ice cold came to challenge the Minotauro. His name was Fedor Emelianko. The date was set and both came to throw down. The Mino came out to fight, got caught with a viscious hook, Fedor pounded Minotauro repeatedly. He hit him so HARD, it seemed nobody could take those shots and continue. Rather then almost go to sleep Minotauro came with his plan, going for sub after sub in between shots. As round ticked by Minotauro seemed to be getting stronger and go on top a few times but to no avail, Fedor was too strong and kept throwing bombs. Minotauro's strengths could not overcome Fedor. Fedor took Minotauro's title in a viscious match, but he didn't stop him. Three wise men decided Fedor's victory, Mino did not concede. Mino was beaten but not broken. Some wrote him off and said he would never be the same again and would never be champ again, he had been exploited.
Flashback Laying in the hospital all those years before Antonio Rodrigo Nogeuira was unconscious, barely clinging to life. The truck had done its work and done a lot of damage. Liver pushed into his chest cavity. Colapsed lung, broken ribs, etc, etc, etc. Some wise men said his chances were slim to none. Many wrote him off, many said he would never be the same again even if he lived. Laying alone and written off the story seemed near a close, but it wasn't. God watched over his hurting child that he had carried by his own hand through the accident and watched over. He knew he wasn't going to die here. The character this child was going to play in God's story was great and the story had many more chapters. God poured love into the spirit of him and poured into his body. Something happened. the damage started to heal over many days. In the process his body became very strong, and his spirit even stronger. What did not kill him made him stronger
Back to now:
Minotauro was not broken, he lost a fight, but it was not the fight of his life. They all said he was done, never again to be a champ. He would fight a close battle with Ricco, using a bad strategy along with Ricco's promise it was basically an indecisive fight, Minotaur got the win though. Everyone said, see, he is done, he didn't win as convincingly as before. Then came the machine, the Mirko.
Mirko Cro Cop hailed from Croatia. He was an anti terrorist special forces officer who became a K1 elite. His left high kick could send you to the hospital or the morgue if you were unlucky. Bas and his partner interview both fighters. They both are confident. Bas thinks Cro Cop will win, Minotauro can't take him down, can't stand with him. His partner is not so sure.
The fight begins, Minotauro comes out strong and takes his adversary down. To no avail, no submission comes. Mirko stands and buffets the Minotauro with blow after blow as Mino shoots and is repeatedly repelled. Eventually he starts to throw back and hits his adversary with some good shots, but eventually Cro Cop lands the mean kick. Minotauro took it and some more shots and kept on, end of round. Round 2 Minotauro refuses to be beat, he wants his belt back. He thinks back and remembers back when he laid in the hospital and God appeared to him and told him, I have faith in you, one day you wont hurt and you will be an inspiration. You will inspire people to fight for good, to be truthful and honorable, to show what I am about. You will show the power of love and human fortitude, the qualities that I gave you when I created you in my image. I love you like I love all of your creed, don't give up I am here and I will help you. One day your body will heal, you will go on to your life. You will be a champ, have friends and be happy and fulfilled. Do things many will only dream of. You will meet a pretty young woman and she will weep for you and laugh for you. You will find love and truth and know me well. Minotauro comes out, he has faith. He throws a few shots and then shoots once more, gets him down. He gets bucked off but he is not worried, ARMBAR, VICTORY! He is a champion again. People remember who he is and his skills, he is once again called Elite, he is back.
One more problem remains, he still remembers his loss to Fedor and it haunts him. He must unify the belts. A great Kumite' is arranged. 16 of the worlds best, he joins and wins the first round, he knows not what the secound round holds, but he knows he must win.
Minotauro has my vote, but Fedor could definately win and others are great too, but man what a story and inspiration Minotauro is. A win in the GP would be awesome. I think him and Fedor are 50/50 in a rematch, although I give edge to Mino although if you watch their first fight only Fedor might be given the edge.
I can understand why people idolize and admire a great guy like Mino but against Fedor he has very little chance if any.
Perhaps, its a tough battle to overcome, well see. I just think Mino will up his game and do what it takes, its not like Fedor took him out in one round last time.
If anybody can do it, that person would be Mino. He really needs to put on some weight and strength by the time he meets Fedor though. I'm afraid if he is as thin as he was in opening round, it will be worse this time around.
Maybe Mino can win if they put Kharitonov vs Fedor in opening round of final 4 and let them beat each other up.
As for Herring, he was the most impressive he has been since the Mino fight I think. I agree he would defeat Randelman. I don't think he can get past Kharitonov if they face off next. Kharitonov is an absolute monster and will give Fedor a run for his money if it comes down to those two.
It really depends on the brackets IMO and...
LOL at Randleman defeating Herring or having a better chance than Herring. Herring would seriously hurt Randleman. There is a reason why a guy like Couture doesn't fight heavyweight anymore... big boys like Herring.
Randleman has skills but is being highly overrated after his upset win. Herring, Fedor, Mino, and maybe Kharitonov should be able to steamroll Randleman. IMO Schilt should beat Kevin as well or make for a very boring fight. Ogawa.... questionable. Giant Silva vs Randleman should have Kevin winning but it will also be pure comedy.
As much as people want to see Takahahi as a tomato can, he isn't. He's just like Ninja. He's a solid light heavyweight who should have been in the Middleweight GP as should have been Ninja. Pride screwed up with that IMO, but then I guess they wanted to make Pancrase look bad by having Takahashi fight Herring.