I actually saw in the Carwin fight that JDS will not be able to stuff Cain's takedowns.
Here is why:
In MMA, due to fear of strikes and subs, wrestlers normally just go for power doubles as they are very fast and if you hit them the takedown is often immediate.
Cain does not just do double legs, he switches between doubles, high crotches, and single legs. You can not normally sprawl on a high crotch or a single leg when your opponent is already grabbing your leg, its no longer a matter of just having strong hips. You have to whizzer a single and crossface a high crotch. It doesn't seem that JDS has trained all of this very much.
Carwin couldnt get a double leg on JDS, JDS hips were too strong. However when Carwin came in on a High C, JDS tried the standard Hips+Underhooks and got taken down easily. If he can't recognize a different shot coming from the outside, he won't be able to recognize Cain chaining together different takedowns.
when cain chainwrestles, he switches double->high c->single->double->single etc., his opponent has to transition defenses that fast or they arent even defending what hes doing anymore. I dont thnk JDS has the wrestling to do handle that.
A similar thing happened when Phil Davis faced Lil Nog. Lil Nog has great hips and mastered stuffing double legs, so Davis switched to singles, Lil nog tried to stuff them the same way as doubles and got taken down repeatedly
All that said, Junior should be able to get back up as Cain's top control isn't as overwhelming as his relentless takedowns.
My issue with Junior is: Does Cain's chain wrestling wear him down eventually over the course of a fight?
you may very well be right. I feel this fight is a 50-50 for that reason like many other people.
But the point of this thread is to discuss how Junior copes with Cain's wrestling. let's not digress too much.
RyannVonDoom - This fight will be Cain's biggest test.
fixed
JDS has awesome hips, but even if he can stuff the takedown for the first 2 rounds he wont be able to in the 3rd, 4th, and 5th.
This is going to be an epic fight.
LordCoSaX -
We all know that grappling is much more tiring than stand up, so mix in the takedowns that Cain is sure to get and the fight being 5 rounds, and the result is JDS gassing hard by the 3rd-4th round.
The only question is can Cain survive that long with JDS. I think he can. The longer this fight goes, the more gassed JDS will be and the easier it will be for Cain to take him down.
My thoughts exactly. That's what makes this fight so hard to prognosticate
JDS has good hips. And I'm guessing good Jiu Jitsu which seems pointless against wrestlers, but he has it, So I don't think Cain will try to take him down at first.
I think Cain will probably press him against the cage and wear him down for a few rounds, then do whatever he wants to him in the 4th and 5th.
The other thing to think about is Cain's shoulder injury, I tore my rotator cuff about 3 yrs ago and it still fucks with me, I wasn't fully recovered for over a yr. And really never FULLY recovered.
Cain is more manly than me and probably has a bigger penis so he will probably not even notice the injury, so that doesn't play a factor.
If JDS can catch Cain like Kongo did Cain will be in trouble.
I could see this go either way.
I am not gay.
I can't wait to see how this plays out. I do think JDS has been improving his wrestling at a rapid pace
but Cain is just a different kind of beast with his mix of cardio and chain wrestling, I think JDS will be able to stuff a couple shots in the 1st but after that Cain will adjust and turn up the pace as JDS begins to tire.
Just as you said with Nog and Davis, Nog was able to stuff them in the first. But when Phil adjusted his takedowns he started to score more.
then again, jds could land one shot and change everything
and great post, jamiee, finally some worthwhile discussion that isnt werdum sucks, overeem is awful, cain got rocked by kongo, jds hasnt fought anyone legit...etc
LordCoSaX - The fact that Cain is coming back from a major injury and the huge lay off is the main thing for me. If this fight was 4 months after the Lesnar fight and Cain had remained healthy I would pick him without thinking twice. But under those circumstances Im not so sure. JDS is a great fighter, and the chances that Cain will be at his best are pretty thin.
Great point.
By all accounts, Cain has a legendary work ethic and he is religiously studious to his doctor's orders, advices from trainers. So I do believe he will come in close to 100% although it's a valid cause for concern.
Where I differ is: even if Cain's back to pre-surgery levels, not sure if I'd "pick him without thinking twice" when his opponent is Junior Dos Santos. Cain could get cracked early on and put away because Junior's hands are really good and he hits hard.
also, check this out, great breakdown
Judo Chop: Phil Davis Adjusts His Approach to Take Downs'
www.bloodyelbow.com/2011/4/6/2083979/judo-chop-phil-davis-adjusts-his-approach-to-take-downs
This is a point a lot of people don't catch, and what makes Sonnen such a different wrestler from a GSP type.
Sonnen is constantly attacking with different takedowns, so you can't just load up on teh double. It's why his takedown rate is so high in MMA, where a lot of great wrestlers, who are more explosive types, don't translate as well. It's one thing to learn to defend one takedown well, it's another to become good at the whole shebang.
this fight will be stand up..no need to worry about takedowns n such imo
He will probably stop a bunch of Cain's takedowns. Denis Stojnic stopped every one for the entire first round.
People are underrating the amount of damage per round that JDS is capable of inflicting. Every round Cain will be a bit less explosive and a bit less quick than the previous one. This is a gigantic challenge on both sides.
Forrsberg. Great point, but so does Cain. In fact, those two are #1 and #2 in the UFC at inflicting significant damage - and they happen to be in the same division.
I want to bring your attention to this eye-opening stat:
SLpM - Strikes Landed per Min.
Rank Fighter Total
1 Cain Velasquez 7.46
2 Junior dos Santos 6.79
3 Luis Cane 5.43
4 Amir Sadollah 5.38
5 Drew McFedries 5.13
6 Joey Beltran 4.99
7 Nate Quarry 4.96
8 Brad Blackburn 4.55
9 Forrest Griffin 4.53
10 Michael Bisping 4.48
beautiful gifs!
this fight will be awesome! it's been so long since i've seen two really well rounded, fairly evenly matched
fighters fighting at heavyweight. hopefully this is one of the best HW fights ever.
i agree that cain's biggest setback will be the long layoff and coming off an injury. I almost wish he could have a tuneup fight, but I guess when you're the champ you don't get those luxories. i'm still probably going to lean towards cain, if only for his mix of striking and wrestling. BUT, what if dos santos pulls a bj penn and immediately shoots on cain?? that might get cain thinking about that and open him up for strikes. but something tells me after the penn fitch fight AKA won't come in unprepared again.
the UFC should put a lot of promotion behind this one. it promises to be a great HW battle.
The only variable I see in this fight is Cain's condition and the possibility of ring rust.
Cain at 100% will wear JDS down grappling and win a lobsided decision.