Why There will Never be Independent 3rd Party

https://freakonomics.com/podcast/politics-industry/

"

And Gehl did not like what she saw in Washington, D.C. She didn’t like it one bit.

GEHL: It became really clear to me that this fight was not about solving problems for the American people — this fight was about one party beating the other party, and that the parties were more committed to that than to actually solving problems or creating opportunities. Eventually, I understood that it didn’t matter who we elected. It didn’t matter the quality of the candidates. Once it became clear to me that it was a systems problem, I switched from investing my time in searching for the next great candidate and turned an eye to the fundamental root cause structures in the political system that pretty much guarantee that as voters we are perpetually dissatisfied."

GEHL: Generally, in industries where customers are not happy and yet the players in the industry are doing well, you’ll see a new entrant. You’ll see a new company come into business to serve those customers.

A new company like … Netflix or Hulu or Amazon Prime or Sling TV or — well, you get the point.

PORTER: So in today’s world, we have the majority of voters say in polls that they would rather have an independent. So in a normal industry, you’d have a whole new competitor coming up that was about independents to serve that unmet need.

GEHL: And yet in politics, we don’t see any new entrants, other than Democrats and Republicans. So why is that? Well, it turns out that our political parties work well together in one particular area, and that is actually colluding together, over time, behind the scenes, to create rules and practices that essentially erect barriers to entry, ways to keep out new competition.

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Do people really think a third party would make much difference? What non-trivial (in terms of voter share) ideological niche would they fill?

banco - Do people really think a third party would make much difference? What non-trivial (in terms of voter share) ideological niche would they fill?

Pro gun Pro Choice Pro Legalization Non Religious - less focus on families to cater to the larger growing population that doesn't care for religion, that chooses not to marry and/or have kids or is divorced and is a single parent.  This part of the population isn't very well represented.

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Road Warrior Fin - 
banco - Do people really think a third party would make much difference? What non-trivial (in terms of voter share) ideological niche would they fill?

Pro gun Pro Choice Pro Legalization Non Religious - less focus on families to cater to the larger growing population that doesn't care for religion, that chooses not to marry and/or have kids or is divorced and is a single parent.  This part of the population isn't very well represented.

Liberaltarians? They also are a tiny share of the electorate and would basically be a protest vote (ie see the current libertarian party).

Voters are women (50% literally).  They'll never tell you what they really want and they love to complain.

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Perceptions of Trump and Biden

![GOP satisfaction with the presidential candidates higher than in 2016|420x631](upload://ami7HmDqAJ6ljcaEdLCORi2HBvZ.png)About half (49%) of registered voters say they are very or fairly satisfied with the presidential candidates, while a similar share (48%) say they are not too or not at all satisfied. Voter satisfaction with the candidates is higher than it was in 2016, when just 40% expressed satisfaction, but lower than it was for the 2000, 2004, 2008 and 2012 elections.

About six-in-ten Republican voters (59%) say they are very or fairly satisfied with the presidential candidates, compared with 42% of Democratic voters. In 2016, there was no significant partisan gap in satisfaction with the candidates.

In the prior three elections in which an incumbent president ran for reelection, members of the incumbent’s party were more satisfied with the candidates the summer prior to the election. In 1996, satisfaction was 9 percentage points higher among Democratic voters than among GOP voters. In 2004, Republican voters were 11 points more likely than Democratic voters to express satisfaction, and the gap was similar in 2012 (Democratic satisfaction 12 points higher than GOP satisfaction). Today, satisfaction is 17 points higher among Republican voters than Democratic voters.

Few say neither Trump nor Biden would make a good president; even fewer say either would

![Record low shares of voters say either – or neither – would make a good president|420x663](upload://xKaCCiFtaLyBILMdHHlKsi2L0bL.png)Just 8% of registered voters agree with the statement “it is difficult to choose between Donald Trump and Joe Biden because either one would make a good president,” while only about two-in-ten (21%) agree that the choice would be difficult “because neither one would make a good president.”

The share who say the choice is hard because either would make a good president is as low as it has been at any point since the question was first asked in 2000 (11% said this of the Trump-Clinton matchup in 2016). And the share who think the choice is difficult because neither one would make a good president is also at a historic low. Four years ago, 41% of voters said the choice was hard because neither Trump nor Clinton would make a good president – only about half as many say the same about the choice between Trump and Biden today.

Few in either party say it would be difficult to choose between the candidates because either one would make a good president (just 8% of Republican voters and 6% of Democratic voters).

Just 14% of GOP voters say it would be difficult to choose between the candidates because neither one would make a good president – 46% said this of the Trump-Clinton race in 2016. While a slightly larger share of Democratic than Republican voters today say the choice is hard because neither Biden nor Trump would make a good president, just 22% say this, down from the 33% of Democratic voters who said this about the choice between Clinton and Trump in 2016.

banco - Do people really think a third party would make much difference? What non-trivial (in terms of voter share) ideological niche would they fill?

It won't.   The problem is money in politics, not the number of parties.  Until that changes, the same interests that bought the first two parties will by the third, and the fourth, and so on.  The only difference is the money will be spread out more.

Sandy Pantz -

Voters are women (50% literally).  They'll never tell you what they really want and they love to complain.

They usually vote for the candidate they think is better looking. It’s kind of pathetic.

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People that become national third party candidates have very little interest in being a part of the necessary leg work that will take decades to make a party viable. 

The way you do that in the US is to form a beach head, entrench yourself into one small state that generally shares your views, and fight the other two parties tooth and nail while leading better than them. Then you grow and fight. 

If a third party could acquire two senate seats and even a few Representative seats, it would be huge for them. They'd have enough leverage to at least keep then both the Dems and Repubs from ganging up on them publically.  

Democrats are trash & republicans are trash 

banco - Do people really think a third party would make much difference? What non-trivial (in terms of voter share) ideological niche would they fill?

If a POTUS did win a 3rd party .. what good would it do?

he/she would have zero sway in the house or senate. 

would be 4 years of lame duck president 

both house and senate waiting for the next election 

Eskimo - 
Sandy Pantz -

Voters are women (50% literally).  They'll never tell you what they really want and they love to complain.

They usually vote for the candidate they think is better looking. It’s kind of pathetic.

They did with Trudeau. And he's as gay as gay gets.

Sandy Pantz -

Voters are women (50% literally).  They'll never tell you what they really want and they love to complain.

So voters are men(50% literally)?