roxbury - I dont think Machida needs a counter for Shogun. If you look at Shoguns strategy for the fight, was to use his range with low and mid kicks to nullify Machidas karate defense and backwards movement.
Shogun used his strategy effectively but its obvious that you cant win a fight from the judges with leg kicks. Machida isnt gonna submit from leg kicks and he is too good to leave an opening for headkicks.
So Shogun now knows that his counter to Machida cant win him the fight, and he found out that he cant use his groundgame. He has to play into Machidas strenghts if he wants to win.
Its not Machida thats needs to change his gameplan, its Shogun. Expect lowkicks as a setup instead of powershots, and knees if he can get close. Perhaps grappling from Shogun to setup knees in the clinch.
Not sure i agree with your post except for the last paragraph is something i think i do.
Shogun may now believe he can take it to Machida more and score or throw more than the legkicks i agree.
IMHO im not sure if i believe opening up more on Machida is a sure shot way to win. if it was, shogun may have opened up more in the first fight
on the other hand, machida didnt exactly land on his signature shots like he normally does. Shogun seemed ready for the straight left and trips and even flying knees.
Id like to see Machida mix it up more. I think his signature stuff can still be effective but perhaps in combonation with more stuff.
Maybe throw some jabs before the straight or hooks instead of the straight.
In boxing you take out a mobile opponent by going to the body (and cutting off the ring, which you can't do in the UFC). In MMA the equivalent approach would be kicking the legs and going to the body. Shogun has the weapons and executed perfectly, bad matchup for Machida.
On the feet i dont see Machida adapting successfully. His whole game is based around that wide stance. Its what allows him to stay outside punching range and safe from headshots but being able to feint/fake and throw kicks from his lowerbody that is still in range so he can move in with his punches
He would need to switch to modified thai stance and that would affect his style. Perhaps he could pull it off. But he would basically be playing Shoguns game then
The more reasonable strategy would be taking Shogun down. But even there i wouldnt bet money on Machida. I mean his groundgame is pretty damn good. But Shogun is lightyears better than anyone Machida has fought so far in his career. We are not talking about Sokodjou here.
I honestly dont think Shogun planned on leg kicking the whole fight. It seemed like he was waiting for Lyoto to open up and panic a bit in the later rounds when he got down. But he didnt.
I really think Shoguns only game plan was to kick to the legs and body and block the straight counter. Which he did the whole fight! Lyoto did nothing to make him change it and Shogun thought he was just cruising to a decision victory.
It was a very close fight, and it was weird to see neither fighter step out of their safe zone for the most part. In the rematch I would expect the first two rounds to go much like the first fight, but then Shogun will open it up and push the pace for the finish.
Machida is also fast though that didnt seem to help him land too much on Shogun first time out.
I dont think it was necessarily Shogun's speed that was the main problem for Machida though. I think it was a combo of many things. Leg kicks for one. Patience for another. Countering with precision for another again.
A healthy Shogun has much quicker legkicks and faster reflexes than many of the other guys Lyoto has fought. Add that to the fact that he has a sick ground game, so Lyoto doesn't have the easy option of taking him down and dominating, like he did with kickboxer Michael MacDonald. I'm sure most other MMA guys who try to legkick Lyoto thinking they've found the key to beating him would get blasted by his counters.
I don't think Machida can radically change his karate-style stance at this point in his career. He's been fighting like that since he was a kid. It will still be vulnerable to Shogun's quick, powerful legkicks when they fight again. The only difference in strategy I see him employing is using the threat of takedowns and ground and pound to keep Shogun off-balance and too uncomfortable to throw legkick after legkick like in their first fight. But then he'll have to deal with Shogun's high-level ground game if he does take him down. Shogun's explosiveness (when he's healthy) and skillset make him a tough matchup for Lyoto, even if he makes adjustments.
Shogun came in with the right game plan. He studied the crap out of Machida and it paid off for him. I think that blueprint will be used by other fighters now, but who can execute it as good as Shogun can?
IMO if shogun coulda finished one of his takedowns then he woulda won a unanimous decision. So to me atleast I'd be working some takedowns for the rematch
If Machida threw some hooks and uppercuts he would have done much better.
Shogun did a great job of learing Machida's style of throwing straigh punches. It is easy to defend if you know that most punches are going to come straight down the pipe, you can just cover up like Shogun did.
However, if someone adds hooks and uppercuts, that defence doesn't work.
If Machida watches the tape and realized that he needs to mix up his boxing he will do better in the rematch.
frontrowbrian - Another thing we will see in the rematch that we didn't in the first fight.. Lyoto's patented trips. Shogun is going to have everything but the kitchen sink thrown at him... it's not going to be pretty for Shogun. Lyoto will make a statement that the Machida era has only begun.
Agree with mixing strikes up to the body (or throwing hooks as Elvis pointed out maybe) when Shogun covered up for the straight but Machida tried several trips and was unsuccessful. I think he winged Shogun off balance once but Machida had already stepped back.
Crazy Zimmerman - Shogun came in with the right game plan. He studied the crap out of Machida and it paid off for him. I think that blueprint will be used by other fighters now, but who can execute it as good as Shogun can?
Thats the thing, its not just about execution, you have to have the game for the blueprint. Other than Vera, who's still hasnt proved he can hang with the top, no other LHWs have the arsenal of Shogun.
LiftStrong - I honestly dont think Shogun planned on leg kicking the whole fight. It seemed like he was waiting for Lyoto to open up and panic a bit in the later rounds when he got down. But he didnt.
I really think Shoguns only game plan was to kick to the legs and body and block the straight counter. Which he did the whole fight! Lyoto did nothing to make him change it and Shogun thought he was just cruising to a decision victory.
It was a very close fight, and it was weird to see neither fighter step out of their safe zone for the most part. In the rematch I would expect the first two rounds to go much like the first fight, but then Shogun will open it up and push the pace for the finish.
I think I agree.
Both guys respected each other (too much?) throughout the entire fight.
Still possible that the first who opens up too much may get caught.
Crazy Zimmerman - Shogun came in with the right game plan. He studied the crap out of Machida and it paid off for him. I think that blueprint will be used by other fighters now, but who can execute it as good as Shogun can?
Shogun showed Machida is very open to leg kicks and HOOKS.
IMO Rampage could knock him out with his cover and roll. Vera if he ever showed up could have a chance.
Id like to see both a Rampage Shogun rematch and Rampage/Machida.
I didnt see Machida open for hooks as much i did Shogun though. I could be wrong.
Wasa-B - We've never seen Machida not have his way or not in control. He rarely misses that straight left or trip and that flying knee to the gut dropped Tito but 3-4 of them didnt seem to have too much effect on Shogun (though they looked to land flush).
We saw a Shogun we've never seen before - much more measured, strategic, disciplined, accurate - in many ways fighting like a Machida.
One thing that possibly spells trouble for Machida in the rematch is that over the course of 5 rounds, he didnt really adjust to the way Shogun was fighting even though it appeared Shogun maintained the same strategy all fight.
Shogun and his camp had much time to study Machida and came out accordingly. In the rematch, will Machida be able to study the game Shogun threw at him this last time and adjust accordingly himself?
Why would Machida have to change his strategy at all? It seemed to be good enough for 3 judges that have absolutely no respect for the leg kick. If anything, Shogun will alter his strategy and end up getting KO'd. Horse shit decisions will make stupid things like this happen.
Diego stole my name - On the feet i dont see Machida adapting successfully. His whole game is based around that wide stance. Its what allows him to stay outside punching range and safe from headshots but being able to feint/fake and throw kicks from his lowerbody that is still in range so he can move in with his punches
He would need to switch to modified thai stance and that would affect his style. Perhaps he could pull it off. But he would basically be playing Shoguns game then
The more reasonable strategy would be taking Shogun down. But even there i wouldnt bet money on Machida. I mean his groundgame is pretty damn good. But Shogun is lightyears better than anyone Machida has fought so far in his career. We are not talking about Sokodjou here.
I think either guy can score points with take downs and some initial GNP. I dont see either doing any real offense to each other on the ground though Shogun would have to be the better or proven ground guy if it counted.
Not sure Machida needs to change his stance. He needs to defend the leg kicks better thats for sure, perhaps stance change is one possiblity. What about moving to the right instead of into the kicks for starters? Thats not karate or MT strategy, just common sense, no?
What makes me think he only needs to make minor adjustments and not an whole style change overhaul is that he was able to throw things like the straight left smoothly like he normally does and have Shogun in range, Shogun either blocked most of them or he just never landed them flush enough. If think if he just has a bit more of a set up or combination before he throws that could help land better. Its not like Machida missed eveything like an airball.
However that one punch lunge could be a style defect for Machida against Shogun or anyone who is expecting it. I believe thats is how the Shotokan style of attack works and how Machida has fought thus far. Now of course, being the fickle animal the UG, many now think everyone will be able to match Shogun's game or performance and that all previous fights where Machida outclassed his opponents with that style is now rendered void. I disagree with both.
However, Machida did throw his whole arsenal that previously dropped all foes and nothing seemed to phase Shogun. Thats not good. But as pointed out, not like he missed by mile. He had Shogun in sight and range, just didnt land anything flush (except for the flying knees which didnt seem to really hurt Shogun).
"Not sure Machida needs to change his stance. He needs to defend the leg kicks better thats for sure, perhaps stance change is one possiblity. What about moving to the right instead of into the kicks for starters? Thats not karate or MT strategy, just common sense, no?"
Just for fun. Try to emulate his stance and move around while trying to check kicks. You will find it very hard to do smoothly. The weight distribution doesnt really allow you to. In order to be able to defend the kicks properly he would need to use a thai stance that has his weight on the back leg with his frontleg light to check kicks. But that would be basically engaging in a thaiboxing match with Shogun
Circling right would take away some of the sting of the kicks but not help him defend or get away from them
Machida has shown he can throw more than one punch at the time. He had some flurries against Shogun and he stayed in front of Rashad and threw everything he had.
If Shogun fought exactly like last time i think Machida basically chasing him with punches is his best shot on the feet
I agree with Wasa-B, if Machida comes in to the rematch with a few tweeks to his gameplan like circling to his right I think it will pay dividends. Also, I think it would be effective if he follows up his flying knee to the body with a left hook like he did with Thiago Silva. I disagree that Shogun was unphased by Lyoto's knees, if you watch the fight again, you can clearly see Shogun winch and try for the take down or tie up in the clinch everytime he was hit with that knee. Those knees were brutal, but obviously Shogun is one tough dude and was able to absorb all that.
The only way I see either being finished is on the ground. Shogun covers up to well for the straight punches lyoto throws to KO him, and everytime you hit lyoto he evades and escapes.
Not only does he cover well, but he doesn't supply any power for Machida, either. Without having someone over commit by lunging towards him, he has very little power. That is why we didn't see any flash knockdowns we have grown accustomed to. It was like watching a slap hitter swinging at 50mph changeups.