After doing some analysis and working the probabilities, I have GSP as a razor-thin favorite in this fight, at somewhere around 51.5% / 48.5%.
I couldn't resist throwing down on GSP last night at the Venetian since I have him as a slight favorite and I got him better than even money. I'm hoping that the newbie fans will bet up GSP closer to fight time and I can get Penn on the plus money later. If I go into the fight needing GSP then that isn't the end of the world but I'm really hoping to watch this thing on a freeroll.
Oddessa has already said that he thinks the fight should open as a pick'em. Whether or not that will happen at Pinnacle depends on factors that I won't pretend to understand.
As far as the fight goes, I give GSP a slight edge based mainly on his steep improvement curve, activity level, and on my gut feeling that the judges will favor his style of fighting if the fight goes to a decision. That being said, BJ Penn is a sick, sick fighter and I would not be the least bit surprised to see him take this fight.
I'm eager to see this line open at a few more books. As of last night, The Venetian still had it at -140 Penn / +110 GSP. They are going to take an absolute bath on this fight. They booked a ton of action on Penn at +170 through +130 and now they are taking a lot of action on GSP, also on the plus money.
"Heart says GSP, head says BJ by sub. I like GSP so much that maybe I should refrain from betting on this fight unless someone else makes the decision for me."
This is a good policy, for sure. In my early days of playing harness racing, I had a problem with this same scenario. You start letting emotions dictate your bets, and you are in some trouble.
This fight is extremely competive. I need to think things through farther, but I am currently thinking there is one who has a decent advantage. In the end, I can almost guarantee you I won't play this one. If I could catch one at +180 or something, that would be a different story.
"The fight will all come down to who has the better takedowns / takedown defense."
If it's like that then everybody in here knows that GSP got both of those covered. Are you stating that GSP will win???
I think the striking is dead even, submissions definitely Penn wrestling definitely GSP.
Should be a very good fight, I think it will be a very even back and forth fight.
"Horses? I'm still not sure how people can bet on the horses with confidence, though I'm sure it can be done."
You really can't bet one race with big confidence. But, you can bet 20 with confidence. I'm saying it is strictly a percentage game with horses. I am hitting 30% winners this year, and you can make a nice profit with about 20-25%, the way I play. After many years of playing horses, I finally found consistent success by finding repeatable scenarios and commiting to playing all of that particular scenario.
GSP is gonna kick his ass IMO. He's freakin huge for a WW and BJ is busy drinking up a storm while GSP is pounding on frozen slabs of cow Rocky-Style!!
I think ohhhhhmyplata is on the right track. This is kind of what I was thinking as well. I think, in general, there is just an army of BJ Penn supporters, as that Venitian swing showed. There should be nice value on either side, if you feel strongly, the way this is looking.
penn has very heavy hands, I'm leaning towards bj on the standup battle. If GSP strikes and takes down bj during every round, he will have a much easier time than just doing one or other.
gsp has better hands and takedowns/defense.. im going w/him.
Wow, a nice thread/analysis on these 2 fighters rather than the shit-storm on the UG. These 2 guys are in my top 5 fav fighters so it is very hard to pick, but if I am forced to I will say GSP by decision.
Okay, so the plan worked:
I bet $960 on GSP at +110 at the Venetian
I bet $759 on Penn at +140 on the internet
If GSP wins, I profit $297
If Penn wins, I profit $103
Man, I know those aren't large sums of money but I'm still happy as shit. Saturday night I'm sitting back and watching the fight knowing, either way, I got a free steak dinner or two coming my way.
You should be making $297 then...
I think u may have a winning ticket there. Good luck.
should be a great night of fights, no matter what
I am very confident that GSP and Ace will win. All of the other fights I don't really know or care too much about. They should have probably gotten some better talent from Canada to even it out a little bit. But Crow and GSP are very good, so I look fwd to seeing their fights.