2013 a cursed year for the UFC?

Underground
1

I can't think of a year where more stuff has gone wrong for the UFC.  I'd say the first six months were pretty good with the highlights being the GSP vs. Nick Diaz and the successful addition of women's MMA to the mix.  There were some hiccups that I don't think the UFC expected, namely the failure to rebuild Overeem post-suspension (thank you, Bigfoot and Browne!) and the fan backlash on Sonnen getting a free title shot against Jones (and Jones' resulting injury, which played havoc with their FS1 debut plans).

But things started turning ugly in July.  Their most dominant champion, Anderson Silva, lost his belt in a bout remembered mostly for his clowning around.  Then the Zingano replacement with Tate drove some fans crazy.  

August 2013 brought the FS1 debut and they did great on the initial show.  But then the numbers kept dropping and dropping.   Pettis wins the lightweight title in quick fashion, but then has to have surgery that puts him on the shelf for a long time.  

September 2013 saw the heavily hyped TUF season with Rousey vs. Tate debut to the series' lowest numbers ever.  It got worse as the show went on as Rousey proved to be unlikable.  There is good news in Jones vs. Gustaffson though.

October 2013 has Cain vs. JDS III.  It was another dominant performance by the champ, but the end result is he also had to have surgery and was out for maybe a year.

November 2013 was even worse.  Their biggest star, Georges St-Pierre, won a controversial decision.  Post-fight he says he might be stepping away from the sport and Dana goes off on the guy.  GSP later confirms he is taking a break for an unspecified amount of time.  In addition, GSP draws the lowest buy rate he's had in years (seen by some as a byproduct of the significant ratings drop after the FS1 move).

December 2013 opens with a FOTY contender that is marred by a post-fight positive test due to TRT allowance (already a grey issue for Dana and company).  The FOX show draws the lowest ratings for a UFC show during NFL season.  And the year ends with Anderson Silva suffering a gruesome and possibly career-ending injury.  

I can't think of a worse recent year for the UFC.  What say you?

2

I agree. UFC is definately entering a new era, and it's only going to get worse in my opinion. Cain is as dominant as they come, but has zero personality/marketability. All of his fights are either in houston or los angeles, while GSP and Silva could sell out any arena in the world. After Jones moves up to heavyweight because he's too scared to rematch Gus, the light heavy division will become virtually starless. The current welterweight champion is some dude named TBD. Pettis is perpetually injured, and even if Bendo regains the belt, he basically only fights on free cards because he's not a draw. The ufc is basically going all in with Ronda.....

Dana should sell his shares and ride off into the sunset now before things get really ugly.

3

I don't think things will get ugly. The WW division will be exciting, so will MW and FW. You're just over exaggerating about a few surgeries. Phone Post 3.0

4

It's not just the injuries. It's the ability of the ufc to draw the casual fan to buy a ppv headlined by hendricks vs lawler. Same thing with Weidman vs Belfort. Pettis vs Thomson. I know there are a lot of exciting fighters out there, but if only the hardcore fans are watching.....again, this is why they are going all in with Ronda and having her fight again in only two months. When was the last time a champ fought this quickly after a win? I think it was Jones who fought 3 months after beating rampage, but only two months after winning? that never happens, and for a reason.

5

Thin on multiple big name fight cards have been outstanding for the most part this past year. Most blessed year since 2009 for UFC.

6

The ufc and mma was always a bubble IMO because the ufc focused on their brand rather then the fighters. They do not know how to build a fighter. And thus as their aging champs. Either lose or call it quits they dont have a plan B Phone Post 3.0

7

No it has been a blessing

That Blessing is Travis "Blue Collar" Browne.

8

SKINS - No it has been a blessing

That Blessing is Travis "Blue Collar" Browne.

This isn't for the rich pricks in the front row right here, this is for my working class homies in the nosebleeds etc. lol

9

It's not going to get any better, IMO. The integrity of the sport was pushed aside so the UFC could do what they thought would make the most $. It's starting to backfire, and with viewers steadily decreasing, PPV numbers are down, GSP and Anderson may never fight again, and everyone hates Ronda. I'll be shocked if FOX renews their contract without a hefty pay cut. Phone Post 3.0

10

NYjojo - Thin on multiple big name fight cards have been outstanding for the most part this past year. Most blessed year since 2009 for UFC.


Agreed on that point.  2013 has some great fights in it.  The problem is can they get people to care about them?

11

domestically 2012 and 2013 have been ugly for different reasons (some of which you mentioned).

The problem isnt losing your 2 biggest draws (anderson and GSP)... the problem is losing them when you dont have a cable TV audience to help replace them.  Losing Chuck, Tito, Brock, Matt Hughes, etc... wasnt such a big deal because the vacuum was still on and others would fill the void.

with only half the cable TV audience the UFC used to have, it's going to be very difficult to fill the void.   Get the cable TV audience back up and everything will be fine.  The Cable TV audience drives everything.

I dont expect anymore title fights on fox.  I expect the ppv's to double up more on title fights and further differentiate itself from the fight night product.

12

I dont see any fights that will even sniff 700k buys in 2014 unless GSP or Brock comes back.

13

2013 was probably the best year in the UFC. Crazy Championship fights: Jones - Gustafsson, GSP - Hendricks,Chris Weidman - Anderson Silva. Pettis - Henderson,
Hunt vs Bigfoot, Gilbert vs Diego, A nostalgic night in Japan with Wanderleis crazy berserk victory over Stann and Hunts KO of Struve, Overeems two loses, Belfrots crazy killing spree and so on the list goes on. Personally my favourite year.

14

MMALOGIC - 


domestically 2012 and 2013 have been ugly for different reasons (some of which you mentioned).



The problem isnt losing your 2 biggest draws (anderson and GSP)... the problem is losing them when you dont have a cable TV audience to help replace them.  Losing Chuck, Tito, Brock, Matt Hughes, etc... wasnt such a big deal because the vacuum was still on and others would fill the void.



with only half the cable TV audience the UFC used to have, it's going to be very difficult to fill the void.   Get the cable TV audience back up and everything will be fine.  The Cable TV audience drives everything.



I dont expect anymore title fights on fox.  I expect the ppv's to double up more on title fights and further differentiate itself from the fight night product.



Holy crap, I agree with everything MMALOGIC says.

15

RondaHonda'dmymangina3744 - 
MMALOGIC -


I dont see any fights that will even sniff 700k buys in 2014 unless GSP or Brock comes back.

What do u think the worst case scenario is if the UFCs numbers don't improve? Phone Post 3.0


if the cable numbers dont improve i dont believe you can sustain nor support 13 ppv's a year.  maximum 11.  Look at it this way... the 2 worst ppv's in 2013 pulled around 180k (aldo vs porier) and 140k (hendo vs Rashad). 



So we currently have a new floor of around 140k. (we have yet to see what that is since the move to fs1 which means it could be even worse).



lately everyones ppv's have been dropping since the move to fs1 (jones, cain, GSP)  and it doesnt look like there's a fight on deck for 2014 that can sniff 700k buys which means we're also likely looking at a new ceiling (at least for the time being).



the floor has dropped, the ceiling looks like it will drop in 2014 whcih means the average will drop.  The most important is the floor because at some point it doesnt make sense to place an event on ppv.  Less than 100k buys doesnt make sense on ppv.



I dont believe a cable audience of 700k can support nor sustain 13 ppv's a year.  if the cable audience doesnt improve the amount of ppv's have to drop. 



Showtime cant sell half of 13 ppv's a year with a boxing audience of 700k... boxing has a somewhat different model but you get my point.



If the cable audience doesnt improve I would move 2 ppv's a year to the digital network and try to build the subscriber base on that and decrease to 11 ppv's a year.  I would continue that until I found a sweet spot (which could be around 8 ppv's a year)..



Keep in mind the more subscribers you have on fight pass (ufc digital network) the more people you'll have buying the ppv's through that service which means you keep all of the money.  if zuffa can get 100k people buying ppv's through fight pass that's like having 200k typical ppv buys. 



A floor of 140k is great if most of those buys are made through fight pass (ufc's digital network).



if the 700k cable audience doesnt improve the sport will become flacid in the states... the sport isnt going anywhere but it will just become flacid (which it seems has begun).



I expect Jones, Ronda, Cain, Weidman, and Hendricks to fill some of the void, but not all of it.  Not only did guys like GSP and Anderson fill the void of their predecessors but they expanded it.  GSP pulled way better buys than hughes.  Anderson pulled way better numbers than Franklin, etc...



the model of placing title fights on free TV and then moving them to ppv hasnt worked.  8 fox shows in and zuffa has yet to produce a single ppv draw.  Zuffa had a much better track record of placing non draws on ppv's next to  other draws and getting people used to paying to watch them fight.



I would move title fights exclusively to ppv and completely differentiate that product.  I would do 2 title fights per ppv event.  Placing title fights on fox have hurt ppv more than they've helped.



500k domestic subscribers at 14.95/mo with fight pass and you effectively replace fox revenue (90m a year).  1.5m domestic subscribers at 14.95 a month and you effectively replace both fox and ppv revenue (zuffa's side).



I estimate that Zuffa needs to be generating around 400m a year in revenue from the domestic market to reach it's domestic revenue potential.  The question is what is the best way to do that.  The easiest way would be for fox to pony up.  the other way would be a combination of digital network plus ppv.  The only way Zuffa can make 400m a year on free television is if the carriage fee model (where most of the population is subsidizing sports rights) continues.  If the carraige fee model (bundling) goes away (which most suspect it will with all TV content eventually moving to streaming services) It's going to be harder to get the rights fees.



I believe the sweet spot is the digital service at 14.95 a month (eventual price once all live fs1,fs2 and fox content is on it) plus around 10 ppv's a year.



at 1m domestic subscribers at 14.95 plus 5 million domestic ppv buys (without the cable and satelite companies taking half) plus keeping all of the incontent ad spots means 400m plus in annual domestic revenue for zuffa (not counting gate, etc...).



Once everyone is used to streaming content on their TV's all you'll have to do is place a huge fight like Anderson Silva vs Weidman 2 on the digital service and you'll get to a million plus subscribers.