any value on Cub, Jim Miller?

I'm looking at Aljamain as a lock at -115... crazy value for a fight he should easily win.  This other guy looks like a lot of decisions, so unless he's some sort of kryptonite to Aljo, I'm not sure why the odds are even.  Yeah yeah, Aljo's lost a few... to title contenders.  Is the new guy a title contender?  I dunno... he sure has a lot of decisions against non-UFC calibre talent, though.

So I'm sitting here trying to figure out how to use Aljo to sweeten some dog bets.  The two that look interesting to me are Cub and Jim Miller.  I normally wouldn't touch Cub vs Frankie... I mean, if last year's Frankie were fighting Cub on Sat night, he should be -1500, Cub would have zero chance.  But dat starching doe...

Am I wrong for thinking +250ish odds are good value for Cub?  I mean if nothing else, what are the odds that Frankie's chin is that much weaker now?

And then there's Jim Miller vs Hooker at +200 or somesuch.  Jim's lost three decisions in a row to world beaters.  Can Hooker stop him like he's done to everyone else?  I'm much less optimistic about value on this one.

I put $23 to win $20 on Aljo... then $10 on each of the other two parlays... so in principle (aka wishful thinking) the Aljo fight covers my other bets.  I think I'd get 45 on Miller and closer to 60 on Cub using Aljo as a sweetener.

A 2 fold of Thiago Santos and Dan Hooker is 1/1 . Thinking about lumping on. Thoughts?

Father O Malley -

A 2 fold of Thiago Santos and Dan Hooker is 1/1 . Thinking about lumping on. Thoughts?

I can't think clearly about that fight.  I can't figure out whether David Branch is the real deal or not.  I also lump Thiago in with the Borrachinha's from Brazil... I don't feel good about betting on guys who may or may not be on the Brazilian horsemeat, and usually "lumping them together" is a good indicator I don't know enough about the guy to be betting on him.

My first glance at this card was that there were no bets for me... they all looked really close, good match ups with the line values you'd anticipate.  Great card to watch, maybe not the best card to bet on.

The more I think about it, the more I like Hooker, though.  Jim's durability is very suspect at this point in his career, and Hooker is looking more and more like a finisher.