I mean, I answered all those questions already…
MMA is not as unrelated to BJJ as people like to think. Hall has been working on BJJ and getting better for years.
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Yeahidk man, I don’t agree at all
I mean it’s not really about agreeing or disagreeing though. Historically, many of the invitees to ADCC have been based on their profile, and not modern competitive results in Jiu Jitsu… this is nothing new. If anything it’s kinda the point of the tournament and why it isn’t promoted as a strictly Jiu Jitsu event.
Regarding the specific points you made that could be up for debate, you literally listed a guy as deserving an invite more than Hall who you admittedly have no idea who he is…
I actually posted that to show who was invited
Ah my bad, must’ve interpreted it incorrectly/misread
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So how far do you think Hall gets? Who do you have as winner of each division?
I know you didn’t ask me but here’s my thought:
I think Ryan can beat (can, not necessarily will)
- Ashley Williams
- Musemeci
- Abate
- Geo
I think stylistically Crelinsten is a very bad matchup for him
And those are just the guys I’m very familiar with. I think he has a good shot at top 3 or 5
How many invites have went on to win it ?
Marcelo
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I think you should acknowledge your bias when making that statement.
Cole runs through him, and likely Mikey does also.
I think the only person he could potentially beat is Ash.
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Yeah Mikey, Cole are too much for sure IMO. Id also put my money on Pato
I don’t know that I really have a bias. I like watching Ryan’s fights but he’s not amongst my favourite grapplers.
Cole is good. Cole is still a 17 year old purple belt. Ryan’s retention and inversions deal well with pressure passing, and Ryan has a better understanding of leg attacks and defense. If you think that match is a guarantee for Cole I think you are mistaken, especially with the longer time limits.
I’m not sure what you’ve seen from Ryan that convinces you he will get smoked by Mikey, especially no gi.
Maybe I’m wrong, only time will tell. But I think people are undervaluing Ryan because he hasn’t been doing pure BJJ for a while. His gym still produces a lot of very solid, high-level grapplers. If you think he can only beat one of the guys in that division I think you’re mistaken
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I have an obvious bias but whereas some will accuse me of blind favoritism I think it just makes me more informed considering I’ve watched him train with half the division.
My thoughts:
First of all, no one is “running through him.” Full stop. Is it possible he loses? Sure? But not a single person in the division is “smoking” him.
I have Hall as my favorite and Kennedy as my pick for finalist depending of course on how the brackets shake out.
I think Ash is slightly underrated/unknown and might surprise some folks in the early rounds.
Fabricio Andrey is the sleeper pick to me and probably the worst match up for Hall as he’s most likely to garner a 0-0 decision for activity but probably without meaningful engagement.
I think Mikey is an overhyped pick for this tournament and ADCC is a bad format for him. If he doesn’t score in regulation and stay in guard by the time points start, he will get ragdolled due to his lack of wrestling. Especially in OT, or god forbid the finals. I know he’s training with Daisy Fresh meow but at the end of the day he’s still a roosterweight with a couple months to prepare his stand up. I think in OT someone like baby shark could potentially maul him, considering he let Geo throw him for Christ’s sake.
Cole will do well, until he doesn’t. I forget who he beat at trials besides Krikorian (I think giant slayer too maybe?) but heck have tougher opponents than ever deeper into this one. His excellent base will serve him well to naturally defend against footlocks but if someone sharp entangled him in a meaningful way I think he could be in trouble. No idea how he wrestles.
Sousa and Pato are similar in that I think depending on the bracketing they make it out of the first or maybe second rounds, but their success in the grand scheme of the tournament depend largely on who they are matched up with and how well they are able to disengage/stall when attacked and reset constantly to make themselves look busy for a decision. I’d like to see either against Ethan first round TBH.
I think this is Geo’s toughest tournament to date. Too many guys that are good on the top and will put the heat on him.
Ruan I’m unfamiliar with but think it’s interesting that Mo picked him as his dark horse to win it all. Gonna have to watch some matches of his and see what’s up.
Still hoping my training partner Adam Benayoun wins the west coast trials, as he can give a number of these guys a run for their money. He subbed Sousa at Emerald City and as I mentioned before lost a very dubiously gamed match against Pato At No Gi Worlds in the quarter.
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Benayoun just beat Calestine at Emerald City. I haven’t seen the match yet but that surprised/impressed me. Calestine is good.
Ruan is a MG guy, I heard hes incredible but I don’t know enough about him.
Actually, now that I think about it I have a bias against Ryan. I dropped in at 50/Fifty for a Sunday open mat once on my way home from a tournament in Philly and they wouldn’t let me roll because I only had Vale Tudo shorts. I had to buy some of their shorts to roll. The shorts are really nice though so I’m not too mad about it lol.
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Continued…
It’s hard to predict the medal stand because it depends so much on bracketing but assuming the bracketing shakes out this way to allow it, for 66 I have Hall over Kennedy in the finals.
77 I have a toss up between JT and Lepri again that will probably come down to a takedown in OT. I hope Mica draws Lepri first round, I wanna see it how Mica does with a master of positioning.
88 is a really tough one. Maybe Fowler and Hulk in the finals. Fowler is tough to take down it seems. But Isaque, Craig, Tye etc could easily play spoiler.
99 I see Lovato dropping to Kaynan in the final. Gaudio is the one that might do better than most think though. Gritty and hard to score on.
Over 99 obviously I think Gordon wins over Pena in the final, but I don’t know how sharp Pena will be with the time off, not to mention his inconsistency in losing to Tex not too long ago might be exploitable. So if Rocha, Hugo or even Gutemberg upset it I wouldn’t be completely shocked.
Crazy enough, female 60 is the hardest to predict. Literally any one of those girls COULD win. I’d say probably Mayssa and Bianca in the final; but Bia could win, and so could Ffion (who I hope wins on account of seeming like an amazing person).
Over 60 only has two names announced that I see so I’ll say Gabi although I hope Pessanha gets an invite and destroys her.
Gordon over Galvao in the super fight if they actually do Jiu Jitsu. Galvao over Gordon is they just collar tie each other really hard and push each other out of bounds.
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Im going Mica for 77. Young blood. Love his style
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Adam controlled regulation p easily but was down on kinda big on ride time going into the bottom of the third round for OT, bellied out and stood and tossed Jon off his back and won by 5 seconds. It was the first time I thought EBI OT was exciting. Jon is very tough.
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