He is the Champ, and I think he can beat Baro at his best, but I do not think he can beat him in is his first match back after this long off. What is your thoughts? 
It's a tall order to ask him to beat Renan after that long of a lay off.
As much as I want to see him perform well, I fear that ring rust might be a factor.
Agree with OP that I think he can beat Renan when he is sharp. His is tough to deal with. But the question is, will he be able to move like he normally does?