Just some longwinded reading material for anyone who's interested. These are excerpts from the Facebook prelims minus Dollaway x Hamman.
http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2011/8/11/2353485/ufc-on-versus-5-fight-card-facebook-prelims-dissection-lytle-hardy
UFC on Versus 5 Fight Card: Facebook Prelims Dissection
Joseph Benavidez (14-2) vs. Eddie Wineland (18-7-1)
The second (Benavidez) and twelfth best (Wineland) bantamweights in the world will engage here.
The two blemishes on the record of Benavidez came from current divisional champ Dominick Cruz, the first at WEC 42 in a Fight of the Night performance, the second at WEC 50 in Cruz's first title defense; both decisions.
Benavidez has tore through the rest of his opponents, the most noteworthy being violent first round stoppages over Rani Yahya via strikes and dual guillotines fitted to former champ Miguel Torres and Nova Uniao BJJ black belt Wagnney Fabiano.
Eddie Wineland became the WEC's first bantamweight champion by knocking out Antonio Banuelos back at WEC 20 in 2006. He had a thoroughly forgettable birth in the sport, winning just three of his first eight fights with four losses and one draw.
Some type of positive metamorphosis must have occurred, as Wineland went on to win fifteen of his next eighteen fights-- twelve of which were finishes-- and cement himself as a . He lost his WEC title to Chase Beebe and dropped fights to Rani Yahya by submission and Urijah Faber by decision in his last outing at UFC 128.
Wineland is an experienced and aggressive wrestle-boxer with a highly resilient clinch game.
He definitely has the more polished boxing technique -- as his crisply delivered body shot KO of Will Campuzano shows -- and, while Benavidez is probably the better wrestler, Wineland is a stubborn bull to take down.
Urijah Faber came out with the intention of taking Wineland down early, but his strong base, cat-like balance and excellent use of the whizzer made the task quite a challenge.
At 5'4", Benavidez is fairly short, which will have advantages and disadvantages. In the clinch, his squatty and powerful frame lends itself to takedowns, especially with underhooks or the body lock.
Standing, his primitive charge while winging helicopter hooks is only effective at close range, and Wineland's straighter and longer punches make it tough to get inside when fused with technical footwork.
Benavidez excels with snaring "gimme subs" from the top, usually flowered by his vicious strikes. His sweet spot against Wineland will be surrounding himself with heavy leather while maneuvering into clinch range to work takedowns, looking to inflict massive damage with ground-and-pound and pressure with choke attempts.
Keys to Victory for Wineland
- Avoid the bullrush -- Benavidez's striking is merely a smokescreen to set up takedowns. It's basic, and maybe even a little sloppy, but it gets the job done if he connects. Wineland will have to employ circling to avoid contact and staunch takedown defense to break free if he's tied up.
- Box the brawler -- Wineland has phenomenal hands and superior technique. It could be a long night for Benavidez if Wineland refuses to be cornered and clinched up. Benavidez unleashes an ungodly volley hoping to pounce when his opponent stands still and covers up, so Wineland will have to sting with long counter-shots while backpedaling, but never allowing himself to get pinned on the fence.
Keys to Victory for Benavidez
- Get inside -- his physical stature makes him more dangerous the closer he is. His striking is deadly when he's in your face, and he alternates quickly to clinching and takedowns.
- Get on top -- On top is where he's an offensive leviathan, and Wineland's guard is probably his weakest position.
The betting lines have stretched out for Benavidez in the last few days. I think Wineland will be a handful on the feet and in the clinch, but the style that Benavidez brings does offer the better chance of being invoked. I would not be surprised to see the crafty Wineland pull off the upset here with a fine-tuned sprawl and brawl, but Benavidez will likely get ahold of him and wear him down in later rounds.
My Prediction: Joseph Benavidez by decision