I've been reading about the Efficient Market Hypothesis, which is (roughly) the idea that the stock market corrects itself in a way that removes advantages. If something is underpriced, more people will buy it and drive the price to where it should be; if it is overpriced, people will sell and the same happens. In reality, this is an OK hypothesis in the big picture, but in the micro, people do enjoy advantages when something doesn't correct as efficiently as it "should." In a perfectly efficient market, an individual cannot "beat the market."
I've been thinking about this and BJJ. There have been trends that were shorter and trends that were longer. Some leave a lasting change on the game (as one imagines the current leglock renaissance will). Many competitive black belts (and even teams) use a narrow innovation to create a competitive advantage for a period of time. In most cases the field of competition adapts to assimilate the new information and eliminate the advantage.
Is competitive BJJ an example of an "efficient market?"
Not sure if it's an effective market overall but I always find myself buying when it's high and selling for a loss when it comes to competitive bjj lol
If perfect information for all participants is a requirement (it is) then competitive BJJ must be as close as we can possibly get.
We all have the same access to footage of a potential competitor. We all have access to the same instructionals.
It is interesting that because of the profit motive we see those with some competitive advantage trying to monetise it as soon as possible. In other words, sell your secrets while they’re hot. Get that information out there ASAP. Thus decreasing the amount of time any information disparity exists.
edit to add: that last point is a nice reflection on the changing market over time - where there was once a motive to hold on to BJJ secrets it doesn’t pay off like it used to.
Red Stuff - If perfect information for all participants is a requirement (it is) then competitive BJJ must be as close as we can possibly get.
We all have the same access to footage of a potential competitor. We all have access to the same instructionals.
It is interesting that because of the profit motive we see those with some competitive advantage trying to monetise it as soon as possible. In other words, sell your secrets while they’re hot. Get that information out there ASAP. Thus decreasing the amount of time any information disparity exists.
edit to add: that last point is a nice reflection on the changing market over time - where there was once a motive to hold on to BJJ secrets it doesn’t pay off like it used to.
Cool thread.
Yeah, and with youtube a lot of the information is free for anyone. People can monetize their channel and put out info for free rather than charging for it. Jon Thomas is putting out fantastic information, for example.
Red Stuff - If perfect information for all participants is a requirement (it is) then competitive BJJ must be as close as we can possibly get.
We all have the same access to footage of a potential competitor. We all have access to the same instructionals.
It is interesting that because of the profit motive we see those with some competitive advantage trying to monetise it as soon as possible. In other words, sell your secrets while they’re hot. Get that information out there ASAP. Thus decreasing the amount of time any information disparity exists.
edit to add: that last point is a nice reflection on the changing market over time - where there was once a motive to hold on to BJJ secrets it doesn’t pay off like it used to.
Cool thread.
Hey this is a great point Red. The profit motives have changed over time and that changes the speed at which info comes to the market for sure.
Back in the day, it was along the lines of "I will win these tourneys and that will bring students to my gym" so there was an incentive to keep things secret.
Now it's a tightrope between "giving myself just enough of an advantage to establish my credentials" and then "getting it to the instructional market before someone else does." Someone like Eddie Bravo or John Danaher is a good success story, while someone like Rickson is probably the opposite. And nowadays there's always someone ready to do a youtube breakdown before you're willing to share it yourself.
Related thought: I remember back when the UFC was in single digits, my TMA instructor was a big fan. He remarked one day "I expect that people will adapt to fighting against Gracie Jiu-Jitsu now that we can all see how it works. If they had kept these matches behind closed doors they could have been champions forever."