Will Justin Gaethje’s bold predictions come true over the next six months?
There is only one champ it’s not one of them
He needs to get by Chandler first and that won’t be easy
I’m stoked for this fight but the whole division is the best in the UFC right now
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Likely not, as Dustin will never be champion. He’s actively trying to fight Nate Diaz next and I don’t blame him…Nate’s lost 3 out of 4, and would be a bigger payday than Oliveira. We legit might end up with Oliveira vs Dariush for the belt with Dustin vs Diaz as a 5 round co-main in December…or if the UFC books Francis vs Gane for Dec, one of those other 2 fights would slide to January.
From there, it wouldn’t be shocking if Dustin gets into a fight with the UFC about $, and decides to wait for Conor again.
When I say Dustin won’t ever be champion, it’s not that I don’t think he has the skills…we’ve just seen him turn down the title fight already for $, and I think he’ll continue to do that…until the title fight is the best possible payday…and I doubt we see that happen before Islam Makhachev is champion, and I don’t think Dustin will beat Islam. Similar style to Khabib, albeit not as dominant, but we know what Dustin vs Khabib looked like. If Islam is 85% of that, he grapples Dustin to a 50-45 decision.
And I don’t want this to come across like a “fuck Dustin Poirier” post. I think he beats Oliveira if he fights him now. Likely Diaz and Conor too…we’ve just seen what happens when guys turn down title fights. How many guys has that EVER worked out for? There’s always some new contender that takes your place, an injury, a contract dispute etc. Dustin will make a ton of money, win the majority of his remaining fights, but I don’t think he’s ever the undisputed UFC Champ.
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I see the “Dustin doesn’t want to be champ so he can pick his fights and make more money” argument quite a lot.
I’m just not really sure if that’s true. At least not the make more money part. If he was champ, there would be so many more financial opportunities thrown at him, plus PPV points, and future financial opportunities as well (former UFC champ vs former UFC fighter).
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Who cares. None of them beat Khabib. The 155 belt in this time is fake. Money fights is where it’s at. Dustin is smart. He knows this. I would love to see the rematch and I’ll be cheering for Justin. The most violent man in UFC history!
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I don’t think Dustin is avoiding the title so he can fight who he wants. I just think he looks at the two options and picks what he feels is better. He said he was given the choice of Conor or the belt, and the title fight would have been about 1/3 of the base salary with no PPV points (insinuating he got PPV points for Conor). Easy choice there…rematch with a guy you just KO’d for more $, then the title fight is still there after, and you probably have more leverage in negotiations after a second Conor win.
Now if he’s given the same option for a Diaz fight (likely for a bit less $, but still more than a title fight), I expect him to choose the short term $ again. He’s a confident guy and is betting on himself here. If he beats Diaz, that’d be 3 wins in a row over marketable guys, would still be the obvious #1 contender, and would be even more popular than if he fought for the belt instead of taking that second Conor fight.
As for your point about how he’d make more $ as champ…depends on the opponents. If he beats Charles, he’s already said in that fight he wouldn’t make a ton…but he’s champ now, so likely gets a pay bump and PPV points. However, what if the number #1 contender is Dariush? Unless it’s a co-main to like…Jones vs Ngannou or something, the Poirier vs Dariush PPV sells like shit, and Dustin makes less $ there than he does against Diaz (or Conor for a 4th time). What if his first defense is against Islam? We’re talking about someone with similar skills to Khabib that’s way less popular…so again, fight doesn’t sell well.
He very well could be giving up future financial opportunities, but he’ll always be the guy that beat Conor twice, and will always have opportunities. If he has to decide between a title fight, and a fight with Diaz that will pay him significantly more now, you take the better $ now. The Diaz fight might go away completely, but there will always be someone wearing the belt you can go fight.
Lastly, if he’s champ, it likely blows the 4th Conor fight. Even though most of us don’t GAF about it, it’s still the best $ Dustin can make. If he’s champ in like April of next year, there’s no July rematch with Conor because even the UFC would struggle to justify Conor in a title fight after 2 consecutive losses.
So maybe Dustin just fights Nate for big $, chills out for a couple months after that and starts working towards that last big Conor payday.
What a strange take. Khabib is retired. When great athletes retire, people don’t generally consider the next champions to be illegitimate.
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You don’t need to be champ to get PPV points it can be negotiated into contracts, that’s why Bellator had to give up on Alvarez
Good to know. Does Dustin have such an arrangement? What UFC non-champions have that clause?
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Came to post this but you beat me too it
I disagree with Rick as I think Olivera would beat Dustin, my opinion only but a fight I’d love to see
Islam is a great fighter and will probably end up as champ at some point, I’m not a huge fan of his but hard to deny his abilities
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You might be right…either way, we’re unlikely to find out unless Oliveira wins another time or two while Dustin is chasing the biggest payday. If they both keep winning, at some point that fight will be the biggest payday for both guys, and it’ll happen.
Kinda sucks that the biggest payday isn’t a title fight.
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Agree, I think Oliveira beats Poirier quite handily at this point. Makachev would frustrate and drown Dustin
He turned down one fight… one…
This is an awful long post for someone who has no idea how another person thinks or wants to do with their prerogative.
Charles Oliveira has been finished 7 times. Dustin knocks him out. Way better and way more composed than Chandler.
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lol you think DP vs Diaz is anything less than a PPV headliner??? Only reason Diaz last fight wasn’t was because nobody cares about Leon, DP is a star.
I don’t think Dariush is next, Tony has lost 3 in a row so that win didn’t mean as much as a year ago. He should fight the winner of Gaethje/Chandler for #1. It’d be very disappointing if DP doesn’t fight Olivera next.
I think he’s has a Diaz esque deal now where he gets PPV points without being the champ.
Nathan and Conor are on the same level as delusional. 2-0 against Dustin? Dustin walks ‘em down, bloodying him up worse and worse as the rounds go on. Only thing Nathan can do is point and laugh while getting his ass whooped.
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He’s turned down several in his career, and held out over contract disputes like 3-4 times. It’s not always a big deal when he does it because he hadn’t been that popular, but there has been like 3-4 instances of him going public and saying asking the UFC to cut him. Iaquinta was one fight the UFC tried to announce but he turned down and held out over $. Tony Ferguson was another one that was announced that he never signed and held out over $. Dustin does that often.