After reading all the interviews on the Pride site, I'm afraid Ogawa may get the "easiest" road to the final four. Look at this quote by Pride president:
"Ogawa won't fight the big 3 right away", Sakakibara continued. "Ogawa plans on fighting all the way to August. I'd like to have someone big waiting for him at that time."
But August is the final four. What about June? Suppose Ogawa does get by Leko and for sake of argument suppose all the favorites advance. So for round 2 in June we have Fedor, Mino, Cro-Cop, Herring, Ogawa, Ninja, TBA (last match still not announced) and the winner of Giant Silva versus Miller. Now they want one of the big three to face Ogawa in August. To make this as likely as possible, Ogawa will be matched against the winner of Silva-Miller. I hope it isn't true and BTW I actually think Ogawa is better than people think.
it's anyone's game...you never know what will happen
Actually... I think they're settin Leko up to lose.
=(
Brad - yes it is, but my point is they are arranging the fights to promote Ogawa at the expense of say, Coleman.
Ghost - I agree. They picked Leko in his MMA debut and matched a huge wrestler against a small striker. This almost always results in a wrestler victory particularly when its the striker's MMA debut. I think Sakakibara is counting on something like Tom Erikson vs. Matt Skelton.
BTW, 7 fights are confirmed on the main card and the alternate bout is McGee vs. Waterman. But they are saying only one more fighter to go - who is the 15th fighter that is already confirmed on the main card?
what i heard is that they wanna try to get Fedor out and are trying to set it up for Ogawa to win
but what if Leko puts up a good fight and makes Ogawa pay for underestimating him!?
could be interesting
and dont count Coleman out...he could beat Fedor too...i highly doubt it but then again...how many guys can dominate Coleman in takedowns and GNP?
that would be freaky to see though wouldnt it!
Brad - that makes sense. I sure hope Leko puts up a great fight and either gets the KO or at least does some damage. As for Coleman, I think he has a great shot. I posted details of why on GO TIME's thread "coleman vs. Fedor. result". Don't count Mark out of this one if he shows up in top shape.
I believe Leko CAN damage Ogawa... question is, will he?
My first fight was against a much larger opponent than myself (with a wrestling background), and coming in as a striker, this was very intimidating. His immediate rush and closing of the distance negated my striking attack almost the instant his grappling attack began.
Experienced in this position, I can easily say that if Leko cannot handle himself on the ground... with his size and striking range (smaller than Ogawa, and limited in this situation), he'd BETTER know how to handle himself on the ground.
The fact that he's training with Japanese fighters that have heavy affiliation with Pride and other cash-cow Sports Entertaining promotions in Japan... for a fight against a fighter who's got the same affiliations... I do not like this at all. It leads me to wonder if he's being trained properly.
"His immediate rush and closing of the distance negated my striking attack almost the instant his grappling attack began."
Ghost - good insights, particularly when the wrestler is much larger than the striker, and I think this is exactly what Ogawa will attempt. Based on the interview on the Pride site, it sounds like Leko is only training with Sak and Matsui last week and this week. Not sure how effective two weeks of training will be but at least he should overcome the jet lag by next Sunday.
"Ogawa plans on fighting all the way to August. I'd like to have someone big waiting for him at that time."
This is why I'll never buy another PRIDE event in my life.
The shit's like pro wrestling now...
I doubt Pride wants their HW champion to lose in the first round of the HW GP. Then everyone screams that they give their MW GP the "easy road" in the MW GP?
Sak and Yoshida was defintely the easiest road for any the fighters in the MW GP.
Silva got the easiest road, that isn't eve up for debate.
Please stay focused on the thread at hand. PRIDE is a circus, they haven't even had a good event since the GP.
"This is why I'll never buy another PRIDE event in my life.
The shit's like pro wrestling now..."
Go easy, BRO... Pride and Pro Wrestling out there are primetime events, both top-5 sports, and the industry they've built as a result of both are HUGE. There's nothing wrong with the spectacle as far as the fan entertainment factor... as far as us American fans looking in from the outside, yes it can be somewhat of a piss off, but Pride does have an overwhelming demand to appeal to their own fans as well... whom, in reality, make up more than 3/4 of their revenues.
When MMA goes mainstream here, and they start doing cross-promotional match ups (tell me you wouldn't shit if you got to see someone like Billy Kidman get in their and square off against Robbie Lawler), I hope that fans like you can embrace it for what it really, truly is... not some anti-climactic, all-influencing, sport degenerative dark-era... but rather, the true evolution of contact sports, in which the phoney fakes are seperated from the pioneers of our combative era, however that has to happen.
I mean... that's how Japan looks at it!
"Even if Ogawa fights for real, and loses the final, his effort will be perceived as valiant by the fans, and he will have stood up to some great foreign monster. It's a standard formula. PRIDE doesn't need Ogawa to win the GP. They just need to get him far enough so that he can takes his dutiful beating. This is exactly what PRIDE did with Yoshida."
Your eyes are wide open on this, my friend.
My concern isn't so much Ogawa winning... it's Ogawa advancing. I don't believe he deserves to on anything but a legitimate angle, and by matching him up with Leko in a worked match for round one... although it may increse the buyrate over there in the land of the rising sun... here, in the land of the David Hojak, it pisses me off.
That, and I really like Stefan Leko.
Yes, if Ogawa-Leko is not a work, Ogawa has a chance to win because as stated above, he's a huge Silver Medal Judo fighter matched against a smaller K-1 fighter making his MMA debut. Ogawa has just as much a reputation in Japan as a legit tough guy as he does for "faking" or working alledged MMA matches, but I don't know if this is fact or not. I also don't know if the MMA bouts they claimed were legit were works or not - I honestly cannot tell on the Goodrich fight for example.
With that said, I agree with you guys that its the next round that bothers me. Its clear Miller-Giant is the one match that doesn't deserve to be on the main card because there are plenty of guys more deserving and available that could fight - the alternate bout of McGee X Waterman is an obvious example! Much more interesting and much better fighters. So my fear, and I hope its not true, is Silva and Miller were put on the card and face each other in the opening round to guarantee that if Ogawa advances he'll have a weak opponent in Round 2. Then, as Ghost points out, his mere presence in the final 4 will, as with Yoshida, be enough to prove his honor and so forth. I hope Leko knocks him out, puts an end to this debate, then faces the winner of the Ninja fight in round two!
Why is everybody making it out like Ogawa is unbelievably bigger than Leko? Leko will probably come in at around 225 to Ogawa's 250, not really an out of the ordinary HW weight difference. Ppl are making Leko out to be a MW or something...
"Whta PRIDE is doing makes perfect sense. Yoshida is out of the GP. They need another Japanese superstar to prop up. Like Yoshida, Ogawa is a medalist in their national sport. On top of that, he already has worker experience.
Even if Ogawa fights for real, and loses the final, his effort will be perceived as valiant by the fans, and he will have stood up to some great foreign monster. It's a standard formula. PRIDE doesn't need Ogawa to win the GP. They just need to get him far enough so that he can takes his dutiful beating. This is exactly what PRIDE did with Yoshida."
i agree...the samurai spirit lives on!
but seriously, we all know Leko cannot handle Ogawa on the ground...the question is then...can Ogawa handle Leko standing?
can Leko defend Ogawa's takedown attempts ala, CroCop?
can Ogawa avoid Leko's strikes long enough to get inside and nullify his stand-up advantage?
whoever wins this match will(i seriously doubt), go any further in the tourny
Ogawa has the best chance but like you said, he doesnt even have to win...the Japanese respect a warrior and i have never seen any Japanese fighters afraid to fight anyone put in front of them...
fat, skilless, pro-wrestler or not, they fear no one...and they always come back for more...
how many times have we seen western fighters lose one fight and then dissapear for years at a time!?
even BJ Penn seemd to let the Pulver loss effect him too much
i have yet to see this amongst the Japanese fighters...
the samurai spirit DOES live on...ya gotta give 'em credit!