Definitely NO live dogs above +400.
Don't forget Joey's dogs who can't win.
think hunt v TK is a bit closer than those odds
I'm almost tempted to but some on Minowa but I know if I do he will get his head kicked off. If I dont he will probably sub mirko
I almost took a shot on Minowa at the + money, but the fact that pound for pound his chin resembles Arlovski............ backed me off him.
I would love to see Minowa win becasue it would add to Baroni's stock. After all, Phil neat Minowa, then Minowa beat the UFC 's headliner vs Shamrock (Kimo).A Minowa win over Cro Cop would be great, but its hard to picture. I have hard time seeing Pride getting Hunt beat in opening round.
I say Cro Cop wins 100 out of 100 against Minowa, even with banana peels in the ring. (-:
It's often such a delima with the dogs. You have to throw enough out there to hook some good ones, but you don't want to throw them around too much. It is very similar to playing horses. Last year got me completely off of dogs in MMA, but there have been many more dogs come home this year.
I can remember way back when I personally thought Kohsaka was one of the best HW's in the game. He is now one of those guys who can probably be considered shot. He has been pounded within an inch of his life too many times, over the years. I think his final magic in a bottle came against Sperry, who was really never a top level MMA fighter.
I am thinking, maybe Yvel is sort of live. I have not backed it up with any money, and probably won't though.
Last year got me completely off of dogs in MMA, but there have been many more dogs come home this year.
July 2004 boxing led me to my 'Live dogs that cant win' train of thought.
I can see how MMA in the past year could have led people to the same line of thought. Thats the thing about making a number. The trick is to make a number that can back them off the favorite, but not get you crushed if the dog barks. I mean what determines if Nog is -1500 or -2500. He is supposed to win. But what will keepem off the favorite. I must admit, I layed -1000 on him. I dont like chalk, but I dropped 5k to steal a nickel there. Hoping I dont get caught speeding.
Hunt looks like a blundered # for me. I opend him high and in hindsight, I see that I still could have gotten dog money at a couple hundred cents lower. I hope lightnin doesnt strike there.
|
TOTALS: 53 BOUTS With Listed Odds |
FAVORITES WIN: 43 81.1% |
UNDERDOGS WIN: 9 16.9% |
DRAWS: 1 1.88% |
TOTALS Overs: 29 54.7% Under: 18 33.95 No Action Totals: 6 11.3% |
BOUTS ENDED BY: Decision: 26 49.1 % KO,TKO, or DQ's: 26 49.1% Draw: 1 1.8% |
The above was July 2004 Boxing Stats. 81% Chalk was painfull that year because the majority of the favs wins were televised bouts.
It's interesting to hear the perspective of the linesmaker. It seems everyone is betting Kohsaka. I don't guess you want one-way action. No sense in the book gambling.
I think when you are looking to bet dogs, you have to look for scenarios that include potential letdown fights, looking past opponent(not training well), or situations where the public just doesn't know the talent of one of the fighters. Bet against the cult names is something I always look to do.
Hunt did look overweight at the press conference, but he is one of those rare fat guys who can, for some reason, still perform and not gas out too bad. Hunt seems to have a natural ability for MMA.
It would be a HUGE shocker to me if ONE of Kohsaka, Minowa, Zulu, or Nishijima won. Of course, anything can happen in a fight.
I keep lists of names that I feel are vulnerable, and I have always had Yoshida on that list. I don't see how he screws up against a boxer, though.
I'm stuck needing Hunt. I was in same spot last week in K-1 and the chalk all held up for me. Looks like I will need thesepositions 2nite unless something changes late. Hunt, Yosh, Fujita, Overeem, Alex, Roman, and Nog.
Dream Stage Entertainment has announced on its Japanese web site that Fedor Emelianenko has been forced to withdraw from the Pride Open Weight Grand Prix, and his replacement will be none other than "The Axe Murderer," Wanderlei Silva.
Bets on field at +300 arent looking all taht good now. Feild was bet all way from +300 to PK.
Silva woulda been at least +1000 to win this.
Dream Stage Entertainment has announced on its Japanese web site that Fedor Emelianenko has been forced to withdraw from the Pride Open Weight Grand Prix, and his replacement will be none other than "The Axe Murderer," Wanderlei Silva.
Bets on field at +300 arent looking too good now. Field was bet all way from +300 to PK.
Silva woulda been at least +1000 to win this.
"Bets on field at +300 arent looking too good now. Field was bet all way from +300 to PK."
Ouch!!!
I think it's weak shit to have Silva in all the hype commercials and say "Pride has a HW Champ, Pride has a MW Champ blah blah" and then not include him. There are hardly any MWs to begin with and now, no Silva. Why not just call it the HW Grand Prix?
Fedor is out of the tourney and Silva is IN. These guys are saying that the field bet got devalued because Silva has a much worse chance of winning the event than Fedor would have had.
ElectricApe is correct. Field lost all its value. The players took a chance on Fedor and now he's been replaced with a smaller guy that would have been ballpark 10-1 or longer to win this thing.
I did a simlar thing on the Ky Derby future pools. I bet Sunriver $200 to make $10,000, knowing he needed some luck to get in. He was #21 and they only take 20 in the Derby. I figured I'd take the chance since if he got into the Derby he'd be about 12-1. Usually someone gets knocked out due to injury, but it did not happen this year.
I'd say Silva would be at least 10-1 to win the tournament. I think you are being very courteous to Silva on that one. It's a natural instict to think the odds are crazy, but it really depends on the popularity of a guy, doesn't it. Of course, I thought I had a steal when I played Cora. I was running out with a ski mask on with that bet. I would make the same bet again, but only 2x.
I still think this is Nogs tourney to lose. If Barnett somehow wins it, I will shit in a hat and wear it. I think 2 of the better guys were bumped in opening rd in Alex and Overeem.
Call me crazy, I can see a Nog vs Cro semi , and Yosh by act of god giving Japan something to smile about beating a tired fighter in the final.
Okay, you're crazy!
Hey, I can't even remember where I read it, and I will be looking for more info, but I read something about Cro Cop battling a foot injury. You heard about that?
I'd say Yoshida and Silva have close to zero chance. I can't think of anyone they can likely defeat in field of 8. When it comes down to final 4, anything can happen.
I'd say on paper, Barnett is the logical 3rd choice. But, I expect Pride will stack the deck against him.
It really does depend on matchups. That is one thing I can't stand about Pride is the lack of "sporting" approach. You have to set some brackets up IMO.