I thought the line would be around even. Spivak is at -300 and Sakai at +250.
I totally get that Spivak could wrestlefuck and even stop Sakai on the ground. And Spivak is a goodish wrestler. But its not like Sakai gets taken down often. His losses have been to powerful strikers, Rozenstruik and Tuivasa. He got taken down and beaten by Overeem but that started in the 3rd round leadiing to a 5th round finish after Overeem beat up Sakai in the clinch compromising Sakai’s ribs. I dont see that from Spivak. This seems like a really wide line where if Spivak has trouble getting in on takedowns he will just get picked apart standing,