Surprised by the Sakai/Spivak betting line

I thought the line would be around even. Spivak is at -300 and Sakai at +250.

I totally get that Spivak could wrestlefuck and even stop Sakai on the ground. And Spivak is a goodish wrestler. But its not like Sakai gets taken down often. His losses have been to powerful strikers, Rozenstruik and Tuivasa. He got taken down and beaten by Overeem but that started in the 3rd round leadiing to a 5th round finish after Overeem beat up Sakai in the clinch compromising Sakai’s ribs. I dont see that from Spivak. This seems like a really wide line where if Spivak has trouble getting in on takedowns he will just get picked apart standing,

I think Spivi is pretty overpriced, but I think the most likely outcome is a wrestling heavy Spivak decision.

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Sakai lost his last three fights by KO/TKO.

To Overeem, Rozenstruik and Tuivasa.

True. Fair enough.

I just think both Spivak and Sakai has shown where their hard ceilings are. Spivak has lost to Walt Harris, Marcin Tybura and Aspinall. They are similar levels and the matchup isnt necessarily the other’s main foil. I dont get where the huge odds comes from. Maybe I will find out in a couple hours.

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