But most of us are not Mr. Pedro.
All I can say is when looking at the matches most turtle turns fail and
that is time you can't get back.
As a general rule for coaching, attack when ahead and stand when
behind is the best way for most players.
allcloser-
Cool, Hope all is well in Tokyo. If you ever make it to Michigan, let me know. ronblake@chartermi.net
RonB
"But most of us are not Mr. Pedro.
All I can say is when looking at the matches most turtle turns fail and that is time you can't get back.
As a general rule for coaching, attack when ahead and stand when behind is the best way for most players."
I agree as a general rule of coaching, Mark, of course.
As for not being Jimmy, there are many ways to skin a cat.
Ben R.
I disagree about not attacking the turtle when behind. I say go to the mat at any time, but realize that when you get behind you are going there to score ippon.
Say there is still a minute, maybe a minute and a half left and you are down. The opponent *will* start hiding on the mat. If they are good at razzle dazzle they may be able to do this more or less at will without getting called for false attack. In this case I think this is a good opportunity to go after them on the mat because they are basically giving you chances for free. But, you need to go after them with the intention of scoring, not with the intention of playing around to see what happens.
In other words, you need an attack sequence in mind right off of the transition, you need to be confident in your defence if you get reversed, and you need to have options for continuing your progress if you get stalled.
Dave C.
PS: judodork, are you suggesting we take this out to...the alley?
There is another tactic for going to the mat when behind which would be to use a gambit - bait the other player into attacking you and try for the reverse.
I guess I do not advocate as a general coaching rule, at least it can be pretty gimmicky and fairly risky, but...
It's going to make a difference on the situation. If you are down by yuko with 45 seconds to go in the finals of the Olympics, attacking the turtle is probably not the thing to do.
Ben R.
Absolutely it depends on the situation, and knowing the opponents.
But I guess the thing that confuses me about the conventional wisdom, if a player is willing to attack the turtle in the first 45 seconds, assuming they get the same opening what is it about the last 45 seconds that is going to be any harder? The opponent won't be any stronger...
Of course time is a factor. According to the research at judoinfo.com the average time in newaza is 15 seconds (although there's a pretty big deviation). A newaza exchange might take 3 seconds, 15 seconds, or you could roll around all day, and it's in the opponent's interest to try to maximize that as long as they can stay out of trouble or better yet get an advantage. But 45 seconds *is* long enough to score - if you can score.
So I think the decision shouldn't be based as much on time as the opportunity. If there's a chance to score on the turtle just take it - otherwise leave it alone.
Geroge Weers did the math long ago on how many turtle attacks result
in a score.
Believe as you wish, do as you wish.
I stand on my point
I think Mark was talking about a guy who is tightly turtled more than a transition opportunity off a throw/counter, etc.
It's a good general rule, but I still go case by case.
Ben R.
When I first read the Weers article on Judoinfo (if that is the one we are talking about) it inspired me to go through my own taped matches and look at each turtle instance in terms of what was working and what wasn't. In that sense it was very helpful to me, but...
The article on Judoinfo does clearly state that most attacks fail - something like 97% (note that this including people walking away as a failure). I don't doubt that the numbers collected are accurate, but what % of people walk away? Maybe 97% walk away and the actual attempts work every time...How many times does sankaku fail? It could be 50-50 or 1 in 100...Basically, you can only get so much out this one ratio. Maybe there is another article that has more information, but the amount of information that can be derived from this statistic is very limited.
I think some more interesting numbers could be derived if a study were to include the technique used (walk away, scrub around, sankaku, etc), success rate, time used up (even walking away takes time), time left on clock, action prior to entry into turtle. Also, number of turtles in a match, success/failure rate of particular competitors, technique range of particular competitors.
Anyway so I think numbers can be helpful, but you have to look behind them. In the case of the Weers article, I'd say it's a start. It does point out that there are relatively few scores resulting from the turtle, but not all of the conclusions are supported by the information presented.
if you are supremely talented in newaza and are confident in your ability to score... go to it. if you arent, get the hell up.
if you are down by a yuko with less that 60 ticks left it doesnt matter how you decide to get that score, it just matters that you do. the guy is gonna run from you in tachiwaza the same as he is in newaza-- i dont see a difference.
the truth is that the reason why most turtles are successful is becuase the tori's arent as good at cracking it as the uke's are in keeping it.
the odds on you getting him penalized twice in the last 60 seconds is minimal unless he is 100% exhausted and you are good to go. the odds on you getting him penalized to koka are good, but what will that matter to you really unless you also score that yuko?
odds-schmodds. you do what you are best at becuase you have to have confidence in that. if you dont, what the hell good is all your training for?
I've found that unless I already have something in transition, attacking a tight turtle uses too much of my erergy to be worth while.
TI: The same thing jumped out at me when I first read George Weer's article a few years ago. I wonder how many of these were bona fide attacks. All situations where one opponent turtled were considered an attack, even when attacker walked away, or pretended to attack to eat up the clock etc.
Irregardless, as Josh says: "odds-schmodds":) Play your own game.
I wonder what the percentage of winning with sode-tsuri-komi-goshi was before Koga came along? Suppose he read that sode was a very low percentage throw, nobody did it, and in fact o-soto-gari was the highest percentage throw ?!? . Do you think he would adjust his game to follow everyone else? I guessing quite the opposite.
Not only only in judo, but this world belongs to the innovators, winners that see opportunities and do things "because" no one else is doing them. If you want to be average, follow the statistics.
ttt