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Logical Betting
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Rich Franklin -170
Wanderlei Silva +150
This is legends fight, but these two fighters have been on far different paths as of late. In their last 5 fights each they have gone 2 and 3 wins to losses, but the key is who they fought and how they won and lost. One big key fact is they fought already, and Franklin won pretty convincingly. They both fought Dan Henderson; they both lost, but Franklin lost by split Decision. Wanderlei lost by KO. Although Franklin lost his last fight against Forrest Griffin by Decision that was clearly due to a size difference. Wanderlei barely survived his fight, being dropped multiple times by UFC new comer Cung Le.
Pick: Franklin. Historically Franklin better as of late. Wanderlei's chin has been far passed suspect for a while now. Franklin can simply employ a similar strategy to last time and win again. Finishing rates: Wanderlei has a 79% finishing rate while Franklin has a 89% finishing rate. While their last fight ended in a decision I wouldn't look past a finish this time around. Neither man has been submitted only KO/TKOED, or Decision-ed.
Fabrico Werdum -500
Mike Russow +400
This fight has got to be one of the more interesting match ups and for bettors its a weird one, but here we go. There's a few facts I would like to throw at your faces. One being that Werdum has never lost to a wrestler(hes only fought 2 arguably three). They have three common opponents: Sergei Kharitonov, John-Olav Einemo, and Roman Zentsov, and all by the same results. Russow has only one loss to his name, granted to him via submission by Sergei Khraitonov(bet most of you didn't know Russow fought in pride). In the end this is a fight where Russow will be able to stay on the feet with his superior wrestling, but by the way their recent fights have gone I'd have to tip the striking to Werdum.
Pick: Werdum. By a landslide. I mean we all know about the infamous Russow V Duffee Super KO. As much as people want to say Werdum lacks a chin, c'mon his last KO loss was to current champ Junior Dos Santos. He handled Roy Nelson and Overeems Standup a lot better than each of their latest opponents (Herman, and Brock Lesnar). While I must digress and state Russow isn't an easy win. He will likely get Frustrated with Werdums stand up shoot and get submitted rather quickly. Finishing rates here we come. Both Werdum and Russow currently sit at 80% finishing rates grab this for finishing under 2 1/2 rounds.
Hacran Dias +220
Yuri Alacantara -280
The long awaited return of Yuri Alacantara. It has been a while since we have seen him in the cage 6 months last week, but he will be facing Nova Uniao member, and Jose Aldo's sparring partner Hacran Dias. Both men have extensive win streaks. Respectively Hacran is on a 8 fight win streal, while Yuri is steady on 13 wins in a row.
This fight is closer than many will like to admit, but Yuri has looked great in his few fights.
Pick: Hacran Dias. At these odds, I think hes a great bet. If you don't know much about him you need to watch his fights, he will also have a 2 inch height advantage. This is not someone to bet really heavy though. Yuri is a favorite for a reason, but in reality the gap is far closer. Finishing rates are 85% for Yuri Alacantara, and 60% for Hacran Dias, this one will likely end inside 3 rounds so go for it.
Cezar Ferriera -250
Sergio Moraes +200
Due to injuries Sergio is stepping in to face Cezar Ferriera.
In the Semi-Finals Sergio was Knocked out by Daniel Sarafian. Cezar on the other hand won his Semi-Final match by Head Kick KO. Stylistically Cezar will look to keep this standing and Sergio will shoot for take downs, being that he is a BJJ champ out of the renowned Alliance team.
My pick: Cezar Ferriera his take down defense if very good and his striking should be what sets him apart. He will have size and length on BJJ champ and a little youth. As far will we see a finish or a decision in this fight, we simply look at their records. They each have gone to decision once in their career win or lose. Sergio Moraes Has a 83% finishing rate(7 fights), while Cezar Ferriera has a 100% finishing rate(6 fights). So if you have an option bet that this will end in a finish.
Godofredo Castro +220
Rony Mariano Bezerra -280
The finals of the TUF Brazil 145 lbs. These two fighters have made it this the final, but their paths are a bit contrasting as well as competitors on their records. In their latest fights Mariano had some trouble with the speed of "wolverine", but in the end his experience and size led him to victory. Godofredo on the other hand was in a much more back and forth contest and showed a lack of cardio it would seem.
Pick: Rony Mariano Bezerra, while not undefeated all his losses(3) are to relatively well known Brazilian fighters. One of which being a split decision loss to Renan Barao, yes the one fighting Faber for the interim belt. Hes going to be the more experienced fighter and will look to keep it standing as he will have a clear advantage there and some good take down defense. As for their finishing rates, both men are 100% so yeah thats a great bet if you can get it.
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ttt
While everyone thinks Werdum will beat Russow, I think it's a pick em fight.
Sure, Werdum will be Russow's biggest UFC test by a fairly wide margin, but he's basically walked through everyone he's face so far.
While everyone thinks Werdum will beat Russow, I think it's a pick em fight.
Sure, Werdum will be Russow's biggest UFC test by a fairly wide margin, but he's basically walked through everyone he's face so far.
Paul Thatcher - tttThanks
Great analysis BB. The Werdum/Russow fight is by far the most interesting bout for me, not only because it has title contender implications.<br /><br />It seems like Russow is an underdog against everyone he meets. It should be interesting to see what he can do against Werdum. The guy just finds ways to win. With that said, I have a hard time imagining Russow getting the takedown and effectively using G+P on him w/o either getting submitted or having to constantly defend subs.
BrunoMcGyver - While everyone thinks Werdum will beat Russow, I think it's a pick em fight.Except duffee....
Sure, Werdum will be Russow's biggest UFC test by a fairly wide margin, but he's basically walked through everyone he's face so far.
Senseandrew - Great analysis BB. The Werdum/Russow fight is by far the most interesting bout for me, not only because it has title contender implications.<br /><br />It seems like Russow is an underdog against everyone he meets. It should be interesting to see what he can do against Werdum. The guy just finds ways to win. With that said, I have a hard time imagining Russow getting the takedown and effectively using G+P on him w/o either getting submitted or having to constantly defend subs.Thanks!! My best argument for the danger he faces is when russow faced olav. Even with him gassing he was still able to get a ton of attempts in there. I'd say fabrico is a bit better than him on the ground. And his stand up is far superior to the guys russow has faced
Ttt
Good read, and I appreciate the effort you put into it. Very thorough fight analysis. A small critique is that it's not a proper betting guide unless you pick specific bets at the available odds, ideally tracking your progress from event to event.
B_Goetz - Good read, and I appreciate the effort you put into it. Very thorough fight analysis. A small critique is that it's not a proper betting guide unless you pick specific bets at the available odds, ideally tracking your progress from event to event.Thanks! I will get more specific. And those are all my picks. I will be small on most and bet heavy on a few. But ya I need to clean it up. But starting tomorrow I will be tracking and posting reports. Thanks!
And yes I should pick specific fights. I do state the ones I feel strong for. But again thank you