Really really like this 3p. Haven't bet on MMA since I lost a G on Mir vs Lesnar 1 from money I built up from $100. That sucked. I have built back up some cash in Bodog from poker so been waiting for the right card to lay it down.
The only one that I don't think is a lock is burger. Thoughts?
I put 100$ on Condit to win 220.
Probably, but you never know
I got Condit and Nate. Unfortunatly you are right about GSP. First two are toss ups though. I've never been sold on DaBurger and think people put to much into the Hendricks KO over Fitch, as impressive as it was. Hendricks is Koscheck/Mike Peirce level imo, one notch below Condit.
Letibleu -
I put 100$ on Condit to win 220.
Where?
I think you're wrong...on all three...
"You, you may say. I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one. I hope some day you'll join us"
bonerfart -I would say 2/3.
I think Nick has gotten to GSP and it will affect him.
I disagree on the getting to him. I think GSP has goten a lot more Mentally strong. If you heard him on the conference call he sounded very confident.
I have never felt a fight was such a lock as GSP over Nate but I thought that on Lesnar vs Mir and that didnt work out... So...
I think Condit is going to win. That fight is the biggest toss up of those 3 imo 
Diaz at +350 is solid. I'm laying some on that one.
Diaz at +350 is solid. I'm laying some on that one.
Herring In A Fur Coat -ShoeMoney -bonerfart -I would say 2/3.
I think Nick has gotten to GSP and it will affect him.
I disagree on the getting to him. I think GSP has goten a lot more Mentally strong. If you heard him on the conference call he sounded very confident.
I have never felt a fight was such a lock as GSP over Nate but I thought that on Lesnar vs Mir and that didnt work out... So...
Why in the world would you think Lesnar was a lock over Mir in his second pro fight?
I still would make that bet.
IMO that was a 1/10 chance. It happened.
I also was talking to people close to Mir at that time and lets just say I was told that was a smart bet.
This wouldn't be a smart bet.
Condit
Marquardt
Gsp 
Bad Monkey -Letibleu -
I put 100$ on Condit to win 220.
Where?
Titan sportsbook
MMAAdvertising -
Diaz at +350 is solid. I'm laying some on that one.
I think that is really generous
Othello - Hendricks too big of a risk to be in a parlay, imho.
Multiple ways for each guy to win that one. It's close
Neither Hendricks or Ellenburger are close to a lock, needing both of them to win is sketchy.
If you wouldn't bet on either of them separately they shouldn't be in your parlay.
Herring In A Fur Coat -ShoeMoney -Herring In A Fur Coat -ShoeMoney -bonerfart - I would say 2/3.
I think Nick has gotten to GSP and it will affect him.
I disagree on the getting to him. I think GSP has goten a lot more Mentally strong. If you heard him on the conference call he sounded very confident.
I have never felt a fight was such a lock as GSP over Nate but I thought that on Lesnar vs Mir and that didnt work out... So...
Why in the world would you think Lesnar was a lock over Mir in his second pro fight?
I still would make that bet.
IMO that was a 1/10 chance. It happened.
I also was talking to people close to Mir at that time and lets just say I was told that was a smart bet.
Can you explain your reasoning? Is there any basis for it, or just the bad "insider info" you were given?
Would you still make that bet without the insider info?
I mean I'm not a gambler, but if I were I'd never beat on anyone in their second pro fight, unless it was a big name prospect vs a can.
Please don't misunderstand. I am not a big gambler. I hope it doesnt come off like I think I am some badass at picking fights.
I will try to answer your question though as best as possible but also I want to be respectful to Mir.
If you go back at that time and you look at Mir his UFC record was something like 10 wins and 4 losses ?
Mir was just coming back from that horrible accident and his comeback record was 2-2 with loses to Brandon Vera and Marcio cruz and non impressive (IMO) win over Anthony Hardonk and a submission victory over Christianson.
So at the same time Lesnar had just signed a MONSTER deal with the UFC and I believe still has the highest PPV buys ever for a sporting event.
I thought there was NO WAY NO WAY the UFC would give him a opponent that was anything other then a stepping stone. This was going to be the UFC's cash cow. I also believed at the time this was going to be Mir's swan song and he was going to go back to commentating.
And that was also the impression I got from people close to Mir.
If you watch that fight again you will see Lesnar absolutely was crushing him and just got caught. It happens. I believe it was that 1/10 chance. Look at the odds on that fight. I was not alone in believing Mir had a very very small chance to win.
That was my reasoning. What the hell do I know. I probably let to many factors outside of the fight itself make my decision.
But I don't think it was a bad bet.
You said "if I were I'd never beat on anyone in their second pro fight, unless it was a big name prospect vs a can."
I thought at that time that was the case and I would never call Mir a can but he was definately not looking like a top contender at that time.
ShoeMoney -Herring In A Fur Coat -ShoeMoney -Herring In A Fur Coat -ShoeMoney -bonerfart - I would say 2/3.
I think Nick has gotten to GSP and it will affect him.
I disagree on the getting to him. I think GSP has goten a lot more Mentally strong. If you heard him on the conference call he sounded very confident.
I have never felt a fight was such a lock as GSP over Nate but I thought that on Lesnar vs Mir and that didnt work out... So...
Why in the world would you think Lesnar was a lock over Mir in his second pro fight?
I still would make that bet.
IMO that was a 1/10 chance. It happened.
I also was talking to people close to Mir at that time and lets just say I was told that was a smart bet.
Can you explain your reasoning? Is there any basis for it, or just the bad "insider info" you were given?
Would you still make that bet without the insider info?
I mean I'm not a gambler, but if I were I'd never beat on anyone in their second pro fight, unless it was a big name prospect vs a can.
Please don't misunderstand. I am not a big gambler. I hope it doesnt come off like I think I am some badass at picking fights.
I will try to answer your question though as best as possible but also I want to be respectful to Mir.
If you go back at that time and you look at Mir his UFC record was something like 10 wins and 4 losses ?
Mir was just coming back from that horrible accident and his comeback record was 2-2 with loses to Brandon Vera and Marcio cruz and non impressive (IMO) win over Anthony Hardonk and a submission victory over Christianson.
So at the same time Lesnar had just signed a MONSTER deal with the UFC and I believe still has the highest PPV buys ever for a sporting event.
I thought there was NO WAY NO WAY the UFC would give him a opponent that was anything other then a stepping stone. This was going to be the UFC's cash cow. I also believed at the time this was going to be Mir's swan song and he was going to go back to commentating.
And that was also the impression I got from people close to Mir.
If you watch that fight again you will see Lesnar absolutely was crushing him and just got caught. It happens. I believe it was that 1/10 chance. Look at the odds on that fight. I was not alone in believing Mir had a very very small chance to win.
That was my reasoning. What the hell do I know. I probably let to many factors outside of the fight itself make my decision.
But I don't think it was a bad bet.
You said "if I were I'd never beat on anyone in their second pro fight, unless it was a big name prospect vs a can."
I thought at that time that was the case and I would never call Mir a can but he was definately not looking like a top contender at that time.
so you are saying the UFC sets up easy fights for their money maker champions..
I'd say the Mir/Lesnar bet you made was a good bet. Just look at how that fight played out, it was a one sided ass whoopin. Just like in poker, when you bet in MMA sometimes you take a bad beat. That was a well picked wager, where your guy was dominating and he got caught. Just because you pick the better fighter, doesn't mean you picked the winner. That's why they call it gambling.
Bad Monkey -
I got Condit and Nate. Unfortunatly you are right about GSP. First two are toss ups though. I've never been sold on DaBurger and think people put to much into the Hendricks KO over Fitch, as impressive as it was. Hendricks is Koscheck/Mike Peirce level imo, one notch below Condit.
I respectuflly would like to hear your reasoning why you think condit is a toss up.
I don't think condit has the power to knock out Big Rig (other then a kick to the head).
I don't think condit will want to get this to the ground.
I don't think condit will be able to run away from Hendriks like he did with Diaz. Big rig is so explosive he can close the distance very very fast. Probably faster then GSP (IMO). And if he lands some of the shots that GSP did condit wont be standing IMO.
As far as a decision goes I think big rig will score takedowns enough to out point condits striking.
Geez after breaking it down it does appear maybe to be a lot closer then I thought.