I’ll go with Islam by third round finish in my parlay.
Going to need to see the rest of the card before add some more bets.
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I keep betting Against Charlie Olives and he keeps proving me wrong. So of course I got Islam.
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The Weasle has it 55%/45% for Islam as his early assessment.
I think I would have to agree with my dear friend Wiggum’s assessment too that usually a good top ground guy will beat the good bottom ground guy esp from a decision over submission prospect. This fight still presents interesting challenges for both guys:
For Charles, as the Weasle says in his video above, he usually marches forward to pressure the other without concern of being taken down. In this fight, Islam will want to get it down and be on top. So wonder how Charles adjusts this. He may also be more weary of throwing leg kicks but the front kicks and teeps are normally harder to counter for tds than leg kicks/roundhouses. He could also use the pressure to force a bad td from Islam and snatch a guillotine or scramble to the back etc in transition. The young and fresh Arman Tsarykyan was able to give Islam some problems with TD reversals and scrambles. I think that was more from a wrestling perspective where as Charles will bring it from a BJJ perspective thus where Charles may not scramble to get back up to his feet as well as Arman or another wrestler, as we have seen, he can snap on subs like lighting in these kind of transitions.
I am also interested to see how Charles’s Thai clinch may also impact Islam tds attempts. If Islam shoots the legs, that may not be too much of an issue but there should be some clinching in the fight and Charles has laid out some good elbows and knees in the clinch against incl against Gaethje and Poirier. But those guys werent looking to take Charles down. This still makes it interesting much like the hypothetical clinch vs Wanderlei vs Randy in a way - the clinch looking to strike and the clinch looking to take the other guy down. Islam does have top level throws in his arsenal but wonder if he will be looking to attack the legs first. The fence and location of where the fight takes place should be very important for this.
I also think about the Weasle’s thought that he think Khabib’s style of more aggressive GNP might be more effective vs someone like Charles vs the more methodical positional based attack of Islam. Playing positions with Charles may favour Charles more. Perhaps the more smart approach for Islam would be GNP to score/try to inflict some damage and open up for positional advancement? Although it also depends on how the GNP is approached. Posturing to really throw down gives bottom guy more room to manuever. I dont think we have seen this style from Islam.
But much like the dream matchup of an elite Thai clinch vs Greco clinch, we do get to see the elite Dagestani wrestling/judo/sambo hybrid grappler vs the most dynamic and dangerous MMA proven BJJ submission grappler. Charles isnt known for TDD because we hardly see guys trying to take him down but each of the 5 rounds still starts standing and Charles striking should be a factor too.
Lots to think about in the approach of both. More for Charles though as he has more ways to win so how does he adapt that to Islam? Islam will do what Islam does but has to be mindful of both striking and subs from his opponent for the first time.
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Neither guy has gone 5 rounds before.
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I dont like that this fight is in Abu dhabi, but probably more tickets and better weight scales 
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Do Bronx , Islam has never been on the ground with someone with the sub skills as him. If Oliveria is the underdog…I’m making a good bet.
Islam’s cardio is sensational.
Watch the Arman fight. Only 3 rounds, but the grappling pace was frantic.
Charles fades.
Incredible to think Charles has only gone to decision 4 times in 41 fights, and never even a 4th rd.
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I do too but I hope so fucking bad that Charles beats Islam and finishes him then calls out Khabib saying where you at I just beat your protege
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Def Possible but gets more interesting if Islam tries to advance position possibly creating scrambles where Charles excels as well as catching guys off tds. Islam has to worry also about punches, kicks, knees and elbows to close the distance.
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That will be one of the biggest moments. The best beating the best and calling out the best. Islam calling out Connor would still be huge but more from a beef perspective.
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I can’t help but notice the overall level of confidence in Charles has gone down since the fight became official.
Has Charles fought anyone with positional control as good as Islam?
I think Islam will use the cage to his advantage. Also if you watch these Dagi guys they don’t really care about advancing to lets say side control right away (in most cases) they use those leg rides where you’re pretty much trapped wasting energy to move, which also seems to stop the scramble. Its not like traditional BJJ guys who want to advance to side control etc.
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The guy is a fuken double leg robot with pretty much unstoppable top control. Most boring lw on the roster but I can’t see Charles dealing with it. Islam probably stops him with gnp or a sub
And I really hope im wrong
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Aloe Vera by punch
islams game plan will be lay on Charles He will eventually get caught
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If Anthony Pettis can submit Charles, so can Islam
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Same could be said about Adriano Martins clean KOing Islam – so can Charles.
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