- Charles Oliveira
- Justin Gaethje
0 voters
How do you see this going down?
I see Oliveira getting the sub in the later rds
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Gaethje is an animal and Oli always tries to test the waters. JG 1st rd KO.
Charles by submission before the championship rounds
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I cannot wait for this fight. Legit big fight feels.
Here are my big considerations:
Justin’s Power: Not only does Charles get hit, he gets hit by hooks. Justin might have the best hook in MMA.
Justin’s Footwork and TDD: Justin has excellent TDD. Not good enough for Khabib, but possibly good enough for everyone else this side of Islam Machachev. I don’t think Olivera’s TDs are better than Chandler’s. But, his TDs are different – they come more from clinch work. The problem, I think, is that Justin’s footwork might be too good for Olivera to get to that clinch/body lock position.
Olivera’s Bodywork: It goes without saying that Olivera has great body attacks – especially front kicks. Moreover, Justin has been suseptible to body attacks in the past.
Olivera’s Submissions: I’ve heard from people who know that Khabib’s domination of Justin on the ground was no accident. He has great scrambles and TDD, but his submission defense is genuinely porous. If Olivera gets a dominant position, it might be over quicky.
While anything is possible, I think the following three scenarios are most likely, in this order:
(1) Gaethje wins by KO. Ultimately, I think Justin’s footwork and power is too much and he puts Charles away quickly. To the extent that I have a prediction, that’s it.
(2) Olivera by later submission. Olivera survives an onslaught, but works the body nicely. Justin slows in round 3 or 4, and Charles gets a TD and quick submission.
(3) Olivera by early submission. It’s possible that I’m underestimating his TDs. He might get one quick and finish it.
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@ConorWinsTheRematch thoughts on the outcome? Interested to hear your take from a striking perspective
I can see any of these happening. Like all of Oliveira’s fights, if Gaethje can back him up Oliveira tends to get caught. But if Oliveira is the one pressuring he does better.
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Under 2/3 rounds
Bet the house on a Do Bronx sub
Or a Justin Ko
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Gaethje has a leg kick, a hook and an uppercut. He doesn’t use his wrestling and he has zero BJJ compared to Charles.
Charles has tons of ways to win, Gaethje has one
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Gaethje does pretty well with pressure, though, because of his angles and lateral movement. Once he figured out the timing of Chandler’s jab, he started eating him alive.
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Of course he uses his wrestling. He uses his wrestling for TDD, which allows him to throw the most feared leg kicks in the sport. And he uses his wrestling for clinch work.
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The only way I see it going past 3 is if Charles does enough to stay alive, and then finishes in a manner similar to how he finished Porrier.
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Olivera is a winner and finds ways to win when things like dire for him.
With this said the man gets hit too much. He needs to tighten up that defense big time. He dodged two bullets already, he would be a fool to fight the same way vs Justin. I think he is smart and will address his weaknesses and find a way to win.
He will have to go through hell and back even if he fights a perfect fight
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I just re watched Justin vs Chandler last night. Before that I was all over Justin but he sure gets himself in trouble a lot. I still have the lean on Justin. I feel his punching power will get it done and think he might big brother Charles a little bit. Great fight!
Great post.
I’ve said it on this forum many times before: Olivera is the best example that mental toughness is an attribute that can be learned. He didn’t always have it, and now he has one of the most formidable mental games in MMA.
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That said, people misremember a bit how one sided that fight was after the first round.
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Good point, he does use a defensively but he never uses it offensively. Everybody knows exactly what’s coming there’s no element of surprise. See Randleman vs Crocop
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