DISSECTION: Analysis of Strikeforce Prelims, Main

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 Minus the two GP fights.  These are random excerpts with links.



Strikeforce Fight Card: Dissection of JZ Cavalcante vs. Justin Wilcox


Gonzo_fist_tiny by Dallas Winston on in Strikeforce Event




Free Movement / Striking Phase


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I really can't think of any specific areas JZ wouldn't get an eight or nine out of ten rating in MMA. He's extremely adept everywhere and with everything: standing offense and defense, clinch-work, takedowns, and technicality on the ground in any position.


Standing, he might be a little stiff and lacking fluidity. He has a straight, long left jab and often leads with a nice left hook, both of which are backed by the tight, lancing right hand you see in the visual versus Thomson.


JZ is not an avid kicker, though he does throw them, mostly a straight push kick or roundhouse to the body. He's also pitched flying knees from outside, which could come in handy versus a wrestling oriented fighter like Wilcox. I can't recall JZ adamantly targeting low kicks, which is something Wilcox's heavy-weighted front leg has been open to in the past.


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I'd feel comfortable saying Wilcox's dramatic strides in striking are Demain Maia-ish.


After the Ishida loss inspired his fervent dedication at AKA, each of Wilcox's performances displayed subtle shades of striking enhancement. The stance and footwork that years of high level wrestling cultivates is not conducive to the nuances of kickboxing, and his balance and poise while launching combinations has become tremendously refined.


Previously, he'd lunge forward with a stooped stance and over-commit on only one or two punches, standing a bit flat-footed and squared up. As depicted to the left, he's now measuring his footwork and reeling combinations with a sturdy yet mobilized base underneath him with his chin better tucked.


This, along with his improved footwork, allows him to attack aggressively while still reacting defensively to counter-punches and takedowns, taking less damage and giving more in the process.


I'm going to lean slightly toward JZ based on experience and history, but Wilcox has built the type of no-frills style of straight, tight punches with good power that can give anyone trouble. For the record, I was so impressed with Wilcox's last fight that I almost called this even.


Advantage: JZ (slight)


Clinch Phase


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To say JZ likes the guillotine choke isn't even accurate ... obsessed is the more befitting description.


For example, the sequence to the right against Kawajiri is not a replay from three different angles, it's three different instances where JZ gave up clinch position to drop for guillotines.


The move is always a risk, but he's far too willing to take it. In my opinion, the time he was forced to spend fighting off his back after dropping for guillotines is what lost him the Kawajiri and Thomson fights.


Re-examine the first animation versus Thomson above: JZ clips him, then latches the choke and wraps up full-guard. After wrenching it for some time, Thomson escapes, and ends up wrangling a tight side-choke on JZ to close out the round. Versus Kawajiri, it only resulted in clocking a lot of time fighting off the Japanese juggernauts daunting assault from the top.


When he wants, Wilcox has taken everyone down from the clinch or shooting from a distance. Besides his questionable use of the guillotine, JZ has a thorough repertoire of body-lock trips and throws, as well as traditional singles and doubles from outside.


It might seem odd to spend so much time on JZ's guillotine, but it's been a distinct make-or-break technique against the other strong wrestlers he's faced. This match up could be the same: considering Wilcox's inexperience against power-submission players like JZ, it could very well be his undoing without careful head placement in the clinch or on takedown attempts; alternatively, since Team AKA surely is aware of JZ's habits, it could also result in Wilcox baiting him with it to score easy points from the top.


Given my blathering on everything that hinges on the guillotine, across the board, JZ has the broader range of offensive and defensive skills in the clinch.


Advantage: JZ



FULL ANALYSIS OF JZ x WILCOX

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Strikeforce: Preview of HD Net Preliminary Card Fights


Gonzo_fist_tiny by Dallas Winston on in Strikeforce Event


Lightweight:  Magno Almeida (9-1) vs. Conor Heun (8-4)


The best way to familiarize yourself with BJJ black belt Magno Almeida is to review his third place rating in the MMA World Lightweight Scouting Report, which also includes footage of his past fights. Leland astutely evaluated the sharpest tool in Almeida's arsenal as his crafty scrambling and creative transition skills. His striking isn't poor, but pales in comparison to his wiry strength in the clinch and his explosive swarming abilities on the mat.


Almeida recently scored a quick submission over Mike Campbell, the lightweight who gained notoriety for his win over Yves Edwards in the Moosin promotion. Heun, whose true talent doesn't shine in the numbers on his record, should be a great litmus test for Almeida's future potential. The only fighter to beat Almeida is a Brazilian brute named Fernando Paulon, a welterweight who's also beaten two-time UFC fighter Amilcar Alves of Nova Uniao.


Conor Heun has been a wrestler since age five, qualified nationally on the Division III Ithaca College team, and holds a brown belt in BJJ under Eddie Bravo. He kicked off his MMA career in 2006 with a second round submission and a loss by decision to the bigger and stronger Brett Cooper (the middleweight who just fought Alexander Shlemenko in Bellator).


Heun started to turn heads from that point on, where he won seven of his next eight, four via submission. The impressive streak included a stint in the IFL where future WEC fighter L.C. Davis took a split-decision, but "The Hurricane" Heun capped off the run with his biggest career win in 2008, which was a second round TKO over James Edson Berton in EliteXC.


After staying busy with six showings on his record in 2007, his pace slowed dramatically with only two fights apiece in the following two years. Though upgrading in status to the Strikeforce promotion in his last two outings, both were losing efforts in competitive decisions against reputable lightweights Jorge Gurgel and K.J. Noons. Heun still considers Legends MMA his home, but has recently trained with Donald Cerrone, Joe Stevenson, and Clay Guida at Jackson's MMA to prepare for Almeida.


Even though Almeida is an exciting prospect, I was shocked to see him favored on the betting lines, mostly due to the vast difference in competition. While Almeida might be a tad slicker on the ground with the superior grappling credentials, Heun cut his teeth rolling with the Eddie Bravos of the world.


He'll also offer a comparable skill-set of submissions and sweeps, and better wrestling than Almeida's encountered with his past opposition. Conor Heun also stood in the pocket and slung combos with K.J. Noons, one of the better boxers in the game. Heun has never been finished, so considering that and his bulletproof beard and solid conditioning, along with the fact that the only time Almeida has ever surpassed the second round, he's lost, and I'll take Heun for the upset here.


My Prediction: Heun by decision



COMPLETE UNDERCARD ANALYSIS

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good stuff UJ, big JZ fan, but I think Wilcox takes the decision in a cage with US judging, different story in though

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Strikeforce Fight Card: Noons vs. Masvidal, Cormier vs. Monson, Overeem vs. Griggs


Gonzo_fist_tiny by Dallas Winston on in Strikeforce Event


In 2007, Nick Diaz lit the world on fire after a slobberknocker in Las Vegas against Pride champ Takanori Gomi that ended in a thrilling gogoplata. The stateside EliteXC promotion laid out the perfect pathway for Diaz to assume the role of the posterboy at the helm of the specially crafted 162-pound lightweight division. Fans were in a Nick Diaz frenzy: he beat Gomi, the result was overturned because he smoked weed, that somehow made it even cooler, Diaz was never anything but ornery and ready to fight, and everyone loved it. The stage was set for a marketing orgasm.


Then, little known boxer K.J. Noons came along and peed in everyone's cereal. We're talking full stream, right in the Cheerios.


Rolling out a rock-solid sprawl that was backed by stellar boxing, with heat-seeking accuracy, Noons reeled off airtight combinations and sprung a leak on Diaz's face, earning the TKO win in one of the more memorable upsets of the year. After blasting Yves Edwards later on in 2008, Noons veered away from MMA to compete in boxing, returning last year to revivify his rep with three in a row over Andre "Dida" Amade, Jorge Gurgel, and Conor Heun.


Despite packing on weight and losing the rematch to Diaz in his last showing, he was the first opponent to survive to a decision against Diaz since Mike Aina in 2007.


We first started hearing whispers about Jorge "Gamebred" Masvidal when he shellacked Joe Lauzon at a 2005 AFC event, then notched his resume with reputable names Keith Wisniewski, Steve Berger, and Yves Edwards in the Bodog promotion.


In hardcore circles, Masvidal's street-cred skyrocketed when he was identified in one of Kimbo Slice's backyard boxing videos, bobbing and weaving around the sloppy punches of one of the Youtube sensation's partners. Masvidal's striking experience stuck out like a sore thumb in the throng of Miami street brawlers, as he bobbed and weaved to two straight wins on the backyard circuit, foreshadowing the element of innate ferocity he would go on to exude in MMA.


In two distinct instances, Masvidal was poised to break into the spotlight, but fell short of the mark. After two wins in Strikeforce, he suffered his first and only loss by knockout to Rodrigo Damm in Sengoku; after signing with Bellator and mapping out a collision course with champ Eddie Alvarez, Masvidal was relegated to the highlight-reels of Toby Imada's inverted triangle. After a brawl with welterweight Paul Daley in Shark Fights that many scored for Masvidal, he set up shop in Strikeforce, and handed Billy Evangelista his first loss to set the stage for the Noons showdown.



*****

 


Across the board, Noons gets lofty marks for the subtleties of basic boxing, such as stance, footwork, head movement, shelling, and angles. That being said, he's still subject to the same perils of MMA that everyone else is. Both he and Masvidal have great chins, but each have been knocked out once before while hurling fireballs in the pocket. The more oomph you put on your punches, the more you're exposed.


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Noons has cat-like reflexes with his sprawl, but in the later rounds against both Heun and Diaz, he was demonstrating a bad habit from boxing that Masvidal could capitalize on. Having a great base and strong center of gravity, along with his lightning quick reactions, Noons gets away with standing stationary and dipping his head into striking range as a defense.


Though I'd put Noons as one of the better offensive tacticians with body shots and uppercuts straight through the pocket, he also showed a susceptibility to the same strikes because of this tendency hunch over in the same spot at close range.


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Masvidal is one of the rare few that can match the quick reflexes of Noons.


Versus Evangelista in the sequence to the right, you see the advantage of his timing on the straight-right counter. In fact, it was more the uncanny timing of Masvidal that facilitated his takedowns on Paul Daley than his pure wrestling skills.


Star wrestler Josh Koscheck might have struggled a little more to ground "Semtex" than Masvidal did; mostly because Jorge transitions so fluently between striking and shooting. Rather than setting up his takedowns with obvious decoy punches, Masvidal seamlessly integrates the level-drop as naturally as he would a punch amidst a combination.


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That's exactly what we see to the left. After getting a bead on Evangelista's standing characteristics, Masvidal unleashes the same lunging right counter, but this time snares a leg on his way forward to score a takedown.


FULL ANALYSIS

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 Daniel Cormier (7-0) vs. Jeff Monson (42-11)

The setting is July 31, 2010.


In his third pro-fight, former Olympic wrestler Daniel Cormier throttles Lucas Browne by TKO in the first round, becoming the XMMA heavyweight champion. Two weeks later, Cormier takes on Tony Johnson Jr., winning the bout by first round submission, becoming the King of the Cage heavyweight champion. One week later, Cormier fights again at Strikeforce: L.A., and -- you guessed it -- replicates the same result with a first round stoppage.


That's three fights, three wins, three first round stoppages, and two championship belts in three weeks.


Who in the heavyweight hell could pull off anything so remarkable in such a short span of time?


The setting is February 21, 2009.


In his nine-millionth MMA fight, Jeff Monson takes on a wily grappling technician named Roy Nelson in Florida, winning the bout the decision. One week later, Monson has beamed over to Belfast, Northern Ireland, where he serves up a guy named Sergei Maslobojev with a north-south choke in the main event. One week later, Monson fights again in Japan at DREAM 8, where he -- you guessed it -- replicates the same submission result, this time over scary Russian paratrooper and former Pride head-basher Sergei Kharitonov.


That's three fights, three wins, two north-south chokes, and two less belts acquired than Cormier -- but about ten-thousand more miles and two wins better than anyone he's ever faced -- in just over two weeks.


These are the kind of gamers we're dealing with here. Though one is new, one is old; one is experienced, one is not; one is wrestling based, one is submission based ... these are two natural born fighters who have spent more time on the mat grappling than most humans have spent in a bed sleeping. It takes a strange and unusual human being, and one of very questionable sanity to do such things, which is why we, the fans, love MMA and its fighters.



*****

 


Monson's sneaky tactic of shooting in, then falling back to grab a deep half-guard is a maneuver he's used with extreme efficiency in the past. Let's take a sequential look-see at how he employed it to catch Sergei Kharitonov.


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Here Monson does a mediocre job of setting up his shoot, but times it when Kharitonov is planted and covers a lot of ground while penetrating deeply. Following through to get deep penetration on the attempt is absolutely essential in order to pull guard effectively.


The next key tactic is the manner in which Monson walks clockwise to clasp his hands together to retain the single and prevent Sergei from slipping out.


Once he locks his grip in the turtle position, he gathers himself and waits for Sergei to react, then surges forward as soon as the Russian frees up a hand to throw strikes.


This baits Sergei in taking what he thinks is theJauuww-o_mediummount, but turns out to be Monson's venomous deep half-guard.


The next sequence begins with Monson losing the deep half, but grabbing a hold of Sergei's left ankle during the scramble.


Quickly twisting from his back to his knees, Monson secures the ankle pick and is now in takedown position. He bursts forward to knock Sergei backward while pulling the single leg in tight underneath him, forming a fulcrum to literally tip the Russian over backward.


Sergei attempts to recover, desperate to keep Monson from taking the top position, and tries to break his grip and  take a knee. Monson is too Charate-kop-o_mediumtenacious, and snaps up to a power position on his knees and thrusts forward to put him flat on his back.


When Monson overtakes the top position, he's already in side-control, and nimbly advances to north-south with his arms already in choke position.


It's basically over from there.


Once the referee decides he's not going to allow Kharitonov to pitter-patter the illegal region of the back of the head, there is nothing left to do but tap out.


This was Sergei Kharitonov's first and only loss by submission, and this is a sturdy veteran of the fight game who's faced elite heavyweight grapplers like Fabricio Werdum and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira.


So, in Cormier's quote in the interview above about Monson's half-guard, particularly his danger when shooting in and then pulling guard to achieve the position, that's exactly what he's referencing.



FULL ANALYSIS


 

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 Thanks MB and liquidrob ... I barely saw your posts sandwiched in there.  :)

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AKA is gonna split: Cormier wins, and Wilcox loses - because BLACKZILIANS RULE!

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awesome write up as always UJ

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It is still beyond my comprehension why Griggs/Overeem is on the main card. Who in the universe is remotely interested in that turd over the Wilcox/JZ fight?

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It is interesting that Daniel Cormier has no problem finishing fights despite being only 5'11" and fighting at HW.

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TTT

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Tomato Can - It is still beyond my comprehension why Griggs/Overeem is on the main card. Who in the universe is remotely interested in that turd over the Wilcox/JZ fight?


 Really weird decision. My only guess why is that Griggs x Valentijn is the HW reserve match and JZ lost to Josh last time out. Plus, it will probably be a quick finish one way or the other.





And thanks Jeff Dubs.

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AnthonyBrancato - It is interesting that Daniel Cormier has no problem finishing fights despite being only 5'11" and fighting at HW.


 Not to sound rude, but I think his level of competition directly reflects this, as evinced by Devin Cole being the first to last to a decision with him.



I'm actually supremely geeked to see him fight Monson.

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That just raises more questions. Why the hell would a scrub fight like Griggs/Overeem by the "HW reserve match" over Monson/Cormier?

I'd rather see Wilcox/JZ over Masvidal/Noons as well. I really just cannot get myself to give a single fuck about KJ Noons.

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Uncle Justice - 
Tomato Can - It is still beyond my comprehension why Griggs/Overeem is on the main card. Who in the universe is remotely interested in that turd over the Wilcox/JZ fight?


 Really weird decision. My only guess why is that Griggs x Valentijn is the HW reserve match and JZ lost to Josh last time out. Plus, it will probably be a quick finish one way or the other.





And thanks Jeff Dubs.

I think that's exactly the reason.  Valentijn Overeem has now been booked for 2 main card fights and they can't even get Cris Cyborg a fight and sent Sarah Kaufman back to challengers...wow.



Great work as always D Dub.

 

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Tomato Can - That just raises more questions. Why the hell would a scrub fight like Griggs/Overeem by the "HW reserve match" over Monson/Cormier?



I'd rather see Wilcox/JZ over Masvidal/Noons as well. I really just cannot get myself to give a single fuck about KJ Noons.


Well, for whatever reason, Monson and Cormier weren't part of the tournament brackets.



Disagree on Noons x Jorge though ... I'm amped for that fight, and the winner is guaranteed a shot at Melendez, so that's a bank for the main.




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jjj2121 - 
Uncle Justice - 
Tomato Can - It is still beyond my comprehension why Griggs/Overeem is on the main card. Who in the universe is remotely interested in that turd over the Wilcox/JZ fight?


 Really weird decision. My only guess why is that Griggs x Valentijn is the HW reserve match and JZ lost to Josh last time out. Plus, it will probably be a quick finish one way or the other.





And thanks Jeff Dubs.

I think that's exactly the reason.  Valentijn Overeem has now been booked for 2 main card fights and they can't even get Cris Cyborg a fight and sent Sarah Kaufman back to challengers...wow.



Great work as always D Dub.

 


Thank you sir.



You like any dogs for this one?

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 Great read!  They do seem to be pushing Griggs for some reason. 

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TheGARV -  Great read!  They do seem to be pushing Griggs for some reason. 



 Hard to hate on Griggs...he was brought in to be the guy to lose to Lashley and then was supposed to lose to Gian Villante.  The fucker just won't lose.

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Uncle Justice - 
Tomato Can - That just raises more questions. Why the hell would a scrub fight like Griggs/Overeem by the "HW reserve match" over Monson/Cormier?

I'd rather see Wilcox/JZ over Masvidal/Noons as well. I really just cannot get myself to give a single fuck about KJ Noons.

Well, for whatever reason, Monson and Cormier weren't part of the tournament brackets.

Disagree on Noons x Jorge though ... I'm amped for that fight, and the winner is guaranteed a shot at Melendez, so that's a bank for the main.


Well of course Monson and Cormier weren't part of the brackets, but neither were Griggs and Overeem, were they?