He absolutely can, and anyone who believes otherwise has a profound lack of understanding of MMA. Jake is GSP's #1 threat. Diaz is #2.
What people don't understand is that Jake's weakness early on was TDD. But Jake was a very part-term ammy wrestler in college. Since then he's trained wrestling heavily. His TDD is levels beyond what it used to be.
People judge Ellenberger based on his past fights. They ignorantly and stupidly neglect that he's improved a ton since then.
In the UFC he's been taken down ONCE. And that was by Condit when Jake was on his knees trying to hammerfist Condit, not exactly a normal takedown.
Not only does nobody take Jake down - he makes people look like fools when they try to do so.
In the first two rounds, Jake would have a great shot to brutally KO GSP. Brutally. GSP's best chance is to try and grind Jake down, because GSP very likely has better cardio.
But GSP could not withstand a flush shot from Jake. The odds of that are just extremely unlikely. And the odds of Jake landing in the first two rounds are very real.
semtex0809 - Lol he couldnt beat condit
That was a long time ago, he's improved - also if you seriously think that GSP could withstand the shots that Condit took, I don't think you understand GSP well. The shots that Condit took were unreal. GSP with very high probability does not survive that. Thus, GSP winning via cardio would not be an issue if Jake landed the shot early.
Bipolar - Kos can wrestle better and hit harder. Remember how the fight between Kos and GSP went?
If you think Kos hits harder than Jake you are smoking some sweet stuff :) Seriously, that's pretty funny. Josh hits hard but Jake hits waaay harder, also he has a more versatile attack. Also Jake is a better technical striker.
His wrestling stance is VERY strong, (perhaps the strongest in the welter weight division). Huge power in the hips and that allows him to down block take down attempts. This leaves him in good position following the failed take down attempt and his opponent in poor position. The fact that he has big power in his hands makes him a danger to end the fight at any time. it's not like he needs to set things up or find the perfect position to execute from. He can hurt you at any time. Combine those two and it makes it very difficult for GSP to fight his fight. GSP wants to finesse you and generally for a duration of 25 minutes. That leaves a great deal of opportunity for Ellenberger to end the fight. It's not a foregone conclusion that GSP will be able to take him down. Ellenberger probably wont bother with taking GSP down and instead opt to stand and take his chances there.
Powerful hips are a big part of being a successful wrestler. GSP has the level change and timing down. If he catches you out of position, there's no stopping his take down. But if Ellenberger maintains his powerful base and cautiously walks GSP down, he will absolutely be able to stuff the take down attempt and then rough GSP up on the way out. That's not to say that Ellenberger easily wins and the fight is automatically his, what it means is that his biggest strength will be seriously challenged and it will leave him in the danger zone as long as Ellenberger continues to stuff his shots.
Koscheck is a great MMA wrestler and very tough to take down. He stuffed or shrugged off a number of GSP attempts in fight #2 and that was with one eye completely closed. But I'm not sure that Kos would win the take down battle with Ellenberger. Obviously setting it up is a big part of it but all things being equal, I think Ellenberger stuffs him more often that not and manages to get his own take down attempts off. That's the level that Ellenberger is at IMO.
SinCityHustler - Between Diaz, Condit and Ellenberger, I give Ellenberger the best chance of beating GSP and it's a very realistic chance. Diaz has the next best chance of winning but for him Georges has to stumble in some fashion. Perhaps get tired, injured, laxidasical. Happened to him against Shields, Alves, Penn 1, Hughes 1, Serra 1, so it does happen. Given an opening like those above listed, Diaz pounces on GSP and makes him quit. Condit is dangerous and has a number of ways to win but most likely GSP blankets him for 25 minutes and escapes with a snoozer decision.
Another fighter, I'd like to mention as a REAL threat to GSP is Rumble Johnson. My friend, who's wrestled since childhood marveled over how technical his counter to Charlie Brenneman's takedown attempts were.
Rumble's wrestling has improved further since training at Imperial Athletics, it seems.
The WW division is looking more stacked than ever, and quite frankln, I see GSP's reign ending very soon.
Rumble is at MW now righting Vitor last I heard - which IMO is a huge mistake for him. He's the underdog to Vitor. If he thinks he can wrestlefuck Vitor, he's in for a surprise.
I think at Rumble at WW would be a big threat, yes. People really overrate the Kos fight where Kos "exposed" him. Kos eye-poked the shit out of him repeatedly. Too many shennanigans in that fight to get a good read from.
Bipolar - What are you even talking about? I don't understand the glaring differences between Kos and Ellenberger? I don't believe one wrestler can out perform another? What the hell are you talking about? Slow down on the PBR. I'm afraid you're the one who is clearly blind here. I'll take Kos over Ellenberger in wrestling. I think most people would agree. I'll also take Kos' power over Ellenberger's. While we're at it, I'll take Kos' ring savy and experience and better refined all aroung game over Ellenberger's, too. These two have the same strengths, although Kos is stronger in both of these primary areas (i.e., wrestling and power). Thus, if Kos was dominated by GSP, what can Ellenberger offer that Kos didn't? Seems pretty clear cut. We have already basically seen GSP vs Ellenberger when GSP thumped Kos.
Like I said Korky, I have no problem with you going on in life blindly believing what you just wrote. In fact, I encourage it. One day you may learn otherwise, but it wont be me teaching you.
Darth Ryase - As time goes on, fighters are catching up to GSP. These great wrestlers are developing striking to match. Once upon a time I might have said "no f*cking way" but these days....maybe....just maybe.
Who is catching up? No one has even won a round against him in like 4 years
Jamiee - Another fighter, I'd like to mention as a REAL threat to GSP is Rumble Johnson. My friend, who's wrestled since childhood marveled over how technical his counter to Charlie Brenneman's takedown attempts were.
Rumble's wrestling has improved further since training at Imperial Athletics, it seems.
The WW division is looking more stacked than ever, and quite frankln, I see GSP's reign ending very soon.
Now this I agree with. If Rumble is on his game, focused, has good cardio, and fights smart, he has the best chance in the WW division to take GSP's title. He is a physical monster, huge power, and a well rounded game.
He absolutely can, and anyone who believes otherwise has a profound lack of understanding of MMA. Jake is GSP's #1 threat. Diaz is #2.
What people don't understand is that Jake's weakness early on was TDD. But Jake was a very part-term ammy wrestler in college. Since then he's trained wrestling heavily. His TDD is levels beyond what it used to be.
People judge Ellenberger based on his past fights. They ignorantly and stupidly neglect that he's improved a ton since then.
In the UFC he's been taken down ONCE. And that was by Condit when Jake was on his knees trying to hammerfist Condit, not exactly a normal takedown.
Not only does nobody take Jake down - he makes people look like fools when they try to do so.
In the first two rounds, Jake would have a great shot to brutally KO GSP. Brutally. GSP's best chance is to try and grind Jake down, because GSP very likely has better cardio.
But GSP could not withstand a flush shot from Jake. The odds of that are just extremely unlikely. And the odds of Jake landing in the first two rounds are very real.
semtex0809 - Lol he couldnt beat condit
That was a long time ago, he's improved - also if you seriously think that GSP could withstand the shots that Condit took, I don't think you understand GSP well. The shots that Condit took were unreal. GSP with very high probability does not survive that. Thus, GSP winning via cardio would not be an issue if Jake landed the shot early.
Bipolar - Kos can wrestle better and hit harder. Remember how the fight between Kos and GSP went?
If you think Kos hits harder than Jake you are smoking some sweet stuff :) Seriously, that's pretty funny. Josh hits hard but Jake hits waaay harder, also he has a more versatile attack. Also Jake is a better technical striker.
DaemonDragon hit the nail on the head. He is by far the most educated MMA fan on here.
Bipolar - What are you even talking about? I don't understand the glaring differences between Kos and Ellenberger? I don't believe one wrestler can out perform another? What the hell are you talking about? Slow down on the PBR. I'm afraid you're the one who is clearly blind here. I'll take Kos over Ellenberger in wrestling. I think most people would agree. I'll also take Kos' power over Ellenberger's. While we're at it, I'll take Kos' ring savy and experience and better refined all aroung game over Ellenberger's, too. These two have the same strengths, although Kos is stronger in both of these primary areas (i.e., wrestling and power). Thus, if Kos was dominated by GSP, what can Ellenberger offer that Kos didn't? Seems pretty clear cut. We have already basically seen GSP vs Ellenberger when GSP thumped Kos.
Like I said Korky, I have no problem with you going on in life blindly believing what you just wrote. In fact, I encourage it. One day you may learn otherwise, but it wont be me teaching you.
Funny how people with no facts to back up their fantasies quickly turn to ad hominem arguments in an attempt to salvage their weak claims. Why not show how my facts are wrong? Are you seriously arguing that Ellenberger has anything but a punchers chance against a fighter who dominates top competition and has for years? And yet Ellenberger can do what neither BJ nor Fitch, nor Kos, Alves and others did not even come close to doing. Please, tell me in what areas Ellenberger is superior to GSP? Where does he have superiority? Athleticism? Striking? Ground game? Clinch? Kicks? Cardio? Game-planning? Well-roundedness? Technique? Transition? Please, let's hear it. As I've said, and you cannot dispute, Ellenberger is essentially a carbon copy of Kos. A wrestler with punching power. A type of fighter who has been thoroughly dominated by GSP. I'm still waiting for you to explain how Ellenberger would be able to fare so much better than Kos, though he has the same style and is even less polished. Whatever reasons you have for believing Ellenberger has a good chance at beating GSP, they are neither grounded in facts nor reality.
Bipolar - And yet Ellenberger can do what neither BJ nor Fitch, nor Kos, Alves and others did not even come close to doing.
Yes, because Fitch, Penn, Kos, Alves or GSP himself KTFO'd Jake Shields in less than a minute or KO'd Pele in 9 seconds or nearly murdered Carlos Condit. Friend - you out your mind. Jake Ellenberger's power is unreal. Only Rumble compares.
Saying he has a "puncher's chance" is like saying prime Cro Cop had a "LHK chance".
Please, tell me in what areas Ellenberger is superior to GSP? Where does he have superiority? Athleticism? Striking? Ground game? Clinch? Kicks? Cardio? Game-planning? Well-roundedness? Technique? Transition?
Sheer power, and probably striking effectiveness. As in, not technical striking, but as in if you stand with this guy you are more likely to get fucked up. Much like Hendo may not have the best striking, but regularly outstrikes "better" strikers due to explosiveness and sheer beast force.
Ellenberger is essentially a carbon copy of Kos.
I really hope you realize how ignorant you look here. They really aren't that alike.
Jake Ellenberger is the WW version of Dan Henderson.
they are neither grounded in facts nor reality.
People thinking he doesn't have a good shot are the ones who are not grounded in reality, and have very little grasp of MMA history.
No. Rocha never came close. Ellenberger took Rocha down, then got swept. He got swept once or twice by Condit as well.
Ellenberger has two weak points - being able to be swept (not really an issue with GSP, he wno't try to take GSP down) and also perhaps cardio (he lost steam against Condit, although that was just one fight so who knows now). But regardless of any improvements Jake has made in cardio, GSP will almost certainly have the advantage.
In terms of TDD, Jake used to have a weakness there, but again he's improved it via practice and his TDD is now terrific. People call him a "college wrestler" but he actually wrestled very little in college. But after college he has become a great assistant coach, and of course with his MMA training wrestles much more now than he did in college.
Jake is not the same weak TDD fighter he used to be, at all. It's why I picked him against Shields even though Shields was the significant favorite. Getting Ellenberger down in the 1st round will be hellish - and surviving one round with Jake Ellenberger is not a given.
I believe that the betting line for this fight would be GSP at at least -350. But that would be greatly off. Just like he was the dog against Shields, when in fact he should have been the favorite - because Jake is not famous, he will not have the money flow to thim. I would at best put GSP at -225. Ellenberger is the most undervalued WW out there right now.
From MMAWeekly's Ellenberger vs Rocha PBP: "Round 1: Quick takedown by Rocha, but they immediately pop up to their feet in an upper body clinch. Rocha goes for a leg trip, but Ellenberger puts him on his back, landing in side control. They scramble and get up, but Rocha quickly takes it back down and begins working from side control."
Bipolar - What are you even talking about? I don't understand the glaring differences between Kos and Ellenberger? I don't believe one wrestler can out perform another? What the hell are you talking about? Slow down on the PBR. I'm afraid you're the one who is clearly blind here. I'll take Kos over Ellenberger in wrestling. I think most people would agree. I'll also take Kos' power over Ellenberger's. While we're at it, I'll take Kos' ring savy and experience and better refined all aroung game over Ellenberger's, too. These two have the same strengths, although Kos is stronger in both of these primary areas (i.e., wrestling and power). Thus, if Kos was dominated by GSP, what can Ellenberger offer that Kos didn't? Seems pretty clear cut. We have already basically seen GSP vs Ellenberger when GSP thumped Kos.
Like I said Korky, I have no problem with you going on in life blindly believing what you just wrote. In fact, I encourage it. One day you may learn otherwise, but it wont be me teaching you.
Funny how people with no facts to back up their fantasies quickly turn to ad hominem arguments in an attempt to salvage their weak claims. Why not show how my facts are wrong? Are you seriously arguing that Ellenberger has anything but a punchers chance against a fighter who dominates top competition and has for years? And yet Ellenberger can do what neither BJ nor Fitch, nor Kos, Alves and others did not even come close to doing. Please, tell me in what areas Ellenberger is superior to GSP? Where does he have superiority? Athleticism? Striking? Ground game? Clinch? Kicks? Cardio? Game-planning? Well-roundedness? Technique? Transition? Please, let's hear it. As I've said, and you cannot dispute, Ellenberger is essentially a carbon copy of Kos. A wrestler with punching power. A type of fighter who has been thoroughly dominated by GSP. I'm still waiting for you to explain how Ellenberger would be able to fare so much better than Kos, though he has the same style and is even less polished. Whatever reasons you have for believing Ellenberger has a good chance at beating GSP, they are neither grounded in facts nor reality.
Korky, I've lost interest in your points. You know better, no problem. Go right on ahead believing what you've stated. If GSP ever fights Ellenberger, take notes and watch the differences between Kos and Ellenberger. I think you're going to be shocked.
Bipolar - What are you even talking about? I don't understand the glaring differences between Kos and Ellenberger? I don't believe one wrestler can out perform another? What the hell are you talking about? Slow down on the PBR. I'm afraid you're the one who is clearly blind here. I'll take Kos over Ellenberger in wrestling. I think most people would agree. I'll also take Kos' power over Ellenberger's. While we're at it, I'll take Kos' ring savy and experience and better refined all aroung game over Ellenberger's, too. These two have the same strengths, although Kos is stronger in both of these primary areas (i.e., wrestling and power). Thus, if Kos was dominated by GSP, what can Ellenberger offer that Kos didn't? Seems pretty clear cut. We have already basically seen GSP vs Ellenberger when GSP thumped Kos.
Like I said Korky, I have no problem with you going on in life blindly believing what you just wrote. In fact, I encourage it. One day you may learn otherwise, but it wont be me teaching you.
Funny how people with no facts to back up their fantasies quickly turn to ad hominem arguments in an attempt to salvage their weak claims. Why not show how my facts are wrong? Are you seriously arguing that Ellenberger has anything but a punchers chance against a fighter who dominates top competition and has for years? And yet Ellenberger can do what neither BJ nor Fitch, nor Kos, Alves and others did not even come close to doing. Please, tell me in what areas Ellenberger is superior to GSP? Where does he have superiority? Athleticism? Striking? Ground game? Clinch? Kicks? Cardio? Game-planning? Well-roundedness? Technique? Transition? Please, let's hear it. As I've said, and you cannot dispute, Ellenberger is essentially a carbon copy of Kos. A wrestler with punching power. A type of fighter who has been thoroughly dominated by GSP. I'm still waiting for you to explain how Ellenberger would be able to fare so much better than Kos, though he has the same style and is even less polished. Whatever reasons you have for believing Ellenberger has a good chance at beating GSP, they are neither grounded in facts nor reality.
Korky, I've lost interest in your points. You know better, no problem. Go right on ahead believing what you've stated. If GSP ever fights Ellenberger, take notes and watch the differences between Kos and Ellenberger. I think you're going to be shocked.
The adolescent name caller still can't find any facts or line of reasoning to back up his convoluted positions. What a surprise.
Ellenberger (whom I like, incidentally) is a strong wrestler with excellent punching power. That's about it. Kos is basically the same type of fighter, and GSP handled him with ease. Of course I believe Ellenberger CAN knock GSP out. I actually wouldn't mind seeing it. But I just don't think he WILL. If this does not make good sense to you, then we'll have to agree to disagree I guess.
