CHiLLEN - I fear that he will be there, unloading leg kick after leg kick on Connors legs.This is my biggest worry.
I'm a fan of McGregor but I see Aldo as Top 5 Ever.
OP has beliebed the hype me thinks.
Aldo can chop the leg or go to the ground.
McGregor can whether the storm and win with more accurate striking (while getting hit a lot too)
Nobody knows for sure what will happen but Aldo is 100% not scared. He's been mistreated and had his name tarnished to the general UFC fandom.
He will be angry and training as if this is his last fight, as all champs should.
stonepony -Wasa-B -stonepony -WATHUNT -stonepony -I agree with you about the striking but Aldo's a bigger threat on the ground than Mendes, if he can get the fight to the ground Conor could be in trouble.Hate420 - He's gonna show up and whoop some ass like he has every other time he's stepped in the octagon.
Last time I saw him fight, Chad Mendez took him the distance in a very close fight. Their striking was comparable.
Chad was having no luck striking with Conor.
Conor will win the real title when Jose shows up to fight.
I think you've got that backwards actually. Conor has the JJ to defend himself against Aldo's grappling.
Conor is weak against wrestling. Chad/Frankie/Faber, beast wrestlers, are all tougher fights for Conor.
IMO.
I dunno about that, Chad, who's shown little ground grappling skills in the past, passed Connor's guard pretty easily and got the mounted crucifix within a quick moment of a td down into full guard iirc. He also got those 2 guillotine attempts from the top pretty easily. This was a beaten up and gassed Mendes who is not known for his ground game.
Aldo while normally being quite conservative in committing to his ground game, obviously has a BJJ game on another level to Chad's as evidenced by how easily he mounted someone like Florian. I would expect Aldo to do better on the ground with Connor than Mendes.
Mendes is of course the better wrestler but Aldo is no slouch in the td dept himself (ask Lamas). Will depend of course on the other factors like how much damage Aldo may take before getting Connor down. Mendes was taking damage out the gate - obviously credit to Connor there.
As far as Chad having no luck striking with Conor, he hit Conor plenty of times. COnor was just having "luck" with his chin. I would have to take away that Connor does have quite the chin as I would say Chad has the most raw punching power at FW (more than Aldo, more than Connor). However, what im not sure about is how flush or how much Chad was able to connect thru with those punches due to his trouble breaking range (which could also be a problem for Aldo). We'd still have to say that Connor's chin is pretty good though.
And while Connor will still have a significant height and reach advantage over Aldo, it will be significantly less than it was over Mendes. Aldo also will not have to worry about Connor's tds (not saying Connor cant take him down but Aldo wont be worried about it like Chad's) and thus he will be able to strike away with less concern there. He will obviously have more to worry with Connor's striking arsenal. The Connor crowd also seem to strike out any factor that Aldo's leg kicks will be a factor simply from the orthodox/south paw stance matchup but Aldo throws leg kicks normally in combination. I would still expect it to be a factor.
I agree with most of that.
"I would expect Aldo to do better on the ground with Connor than Mendes."
My point was, Chad/Frankie/Uriah are all far more likely and more able to take Conor to the ground. Whereas Aldo will stand with him.
And, Conor weaseling out of that Alpha-Male guillotine choke wasn't nothing. It was a statement.
Those 3 are better wrestlers, sure. I guess the question is if or how often Aldo will go for tds. Ive always been saying he should and after the Mendes fight, its clear he should. Aldo has pretty explosive tds...although over a longer fight, it could drain him more too.
I also don't think getting out of subs is any kind of statement these days in MMA. People that are levels below others in BJJ get out of sub attempts all the time. Mendes is not a sub expert and he was also beaten up and gassed and forced those guillotines. Ive been pretty honest of what ive found impressive with Connor and what I didn't. I wouldn't say his ability to get out of those guillotines are that great of a feat imo.
I will say that credit goes where its due and at the end of the day, Connor answered Mendes on the ground where Mendes could not answer Connor standing. Bottom line. Much like Nog said of his fight with CC, even though Nog was beaten up standing, at the end of the fight, he took CC's standup and CC could not last on the ground with Nog.
WATHUNT -stonepony -When Aldo wants to take someone down he's been quite successful, i think his takedown % is right up there with gsp.Wasa-B -stonepony -WATHUNT -stonepony -I agree with you about the striking but Aldo's a bigger threat on the ground than Mendes, if he can get the fight to the ground Conor could be in trouble.Hate420 - He's gonna show up and whoop some ass like he has every other time he's stepped in the octagon.
Last time I saw him fight, Chad Mendez took him the distance in a very close fight. Their striking was comparable.
Chad was having no luck striking with Conor.
Conor will win the real title when Jose shows up to fight.
I think you've got that backwards actually. Conor has the JJ to defend himself against Aldo's grappling.
Conor is weak against wrestling. Chad/Frankie/Faber, beast wrestlers, are all tougher fights for Conor.
IMO.
I dunno about that, Chad, who's shown little ground grappling skills in the past, passed Connor's guard pretty easily and got the mounted crucifix within a quick moment of a td down into full guard iirc. He also got those 2 guillotine attempts from the top pretty easily. This was a beaten up and gassed Mendes who is not known for his ground game.
Aldo while normally being quite conservative in committing to his ground game, obviously has a BJJ game on another level to Chad's as evidenced by how easily he mounted someone like Florian. I would expect Aldo to do better on the ground with Connor than Mendes.
Mendes is of course the better wrestler but Aldo is no slouch in the td dept himself (ask Lamas). Will depend of course on the other factors like how much damage Aldo may take before getting Connor down. Mendes was taking damage out the gate - obviously credit to Connor there.
As far as Chad having no luck striking with Conor, he hit Conor plenty of times. COnor was just having "luck" with his chin. I would have to take away that Connor does have quite the chin as I would say Chad has the most raw punching power at FW (more than Aldo, more than Connor). However, what im not sure about is how flush or how much Chad was able to connect thru with those punches due to his trouble breaking range (which could also be a problem for Aldo). We'd still have to say that Connor's chin is pretty good though.
And while Connor will still have a significant height and reach advantage over Aldo, it will be significantly less than it was over Mendes. Aldo also will not have to worry about Connor's tds (not saying Connor cant take him down but Aldo wont be worried about it like Chad's) and thus he will be able to strike away with less concern there. He will obviously have more to worry with Connor's striking arsenal. The Connor crowd also seem to strike out any factor that Aldo's leg kicks will be a factor simply from the orthodox/south paw stance matchup but Aldo throws leg kicks normally in combination. I would still expect it to be a factor.
I agree with most of that.
"I would expect Aldo to do better on the ground with Connor than Mendes."
My point was, Chad/Frankie/Uriah are all far more likely and more able to take Conor to the ground. Whereas Aldo will stand with him.
And, Conor weaseling out of that Alpha-Male guillotine choke wasn't nothing. It was a statement.
He's made a career of beating good wrestlers with his great tdd making them stand with him where he's had a big advantage.
I think this fight its the opposite and he will have the advantage on the ground and where he'll try and take this fight.
His % is probably high cause he doesn't go for them that often but when he does, he chooses the right time and explodes thru them. We've never seen him pursue the ground as a priority so while I would agree he should absolutely take Connor where he is weakest, Connor still presents range challenges and shooting more tds is more draining over the course of the fight.
It will be interesting as he has never really committed to ground attacks and subs either. Barao has snagged quite a few subs when the opportunities presented themselves but Aldo usu bails out of the ground action when there is a potential scramble. Im guessing because he does not want to risk landing in guard and thus risk losing a round when he thinks he can beat the opoonent standing.
But his BJJ is very good as we know. But as mentioned regarding Connor getting out of Mendes' guillotine attempts, its one thing to dominate positionally but its another to finish a sub in MMA. And sub attempts can always risk losing position, its always been this way. And thus far, Aldo has opted not to pursue them. I would think that arm triangles from the top or RNCs would be the way to go here.
Aldo's passing game is quite good. The guy mounted Florian in a snap and Mendes was passing Connor quite easily. Im not saying the sub will come easily but I would expect that he should be able to dominate positionally on the ground (assuming he's not super gassed or damaged by the time it gets there of course, which is possible too).
orcus - "My point was, Chad/Frankie/Uriah are all far more likely and more able to take Conor to the ground. Whereas Aldo will stand with him."
More likely, yes. More able, I don't know -- I don't think Aldo would have any real difficulty taking Conor down if/when he tries to do so.
If Aldo is smart, he'll take Conor down and submit him immediately and make him look like a chump. I think Conor is at least equal to Aldo standing if not better; that would be a dangerous fight and certainly not an easy one. It would be hilarious and humiliating to simply submit Conor in the first round, not give him a chance to show anything at all, make him look like a rookie.
I think that's the best case scenario for Aldo esp since its easier to pursue the sub when they are less sweaty. Like I said in the other post, completing a sub is a bit harder these days in MMA compared to dominating positionally (which I would expect Aldo to be able to do) and there going for a sub can also risk the other guy getting back up. I think Aldo should pursue the arm triangles and RNCs if possible. I doubt he will go for armbars or triangles unless from an opportunistic scramble.
Aldo is pretty calculated though and while I could see him go for the td early, I doubt he will be shooting that frequently if he gets stuffed. That could change if Conor comes out and dominates the standup from the get go ala Mendes. Ill be curious to see how Aldo deals with Conor's range and also the front kicks. Those should still be an issue but im willing to bet he will be better prepared than Mendes. Being as Chad was also able to land those straight rights without any set up, I can also see Aldo's combinations landing on Connor and setting up his leg kicks as well. But Conor's chin could hold up again.
I suppose at the least, Aldo's standup cold just set up his tds which in the past he has shown he has good timing selection with them.
The 3 fights in which I recall Aldo going for tds is the 2 fights he was in trouble in: Hominick and TKZ. Neither of those guys are known for tdd. He did take down Lamas who is a good wrestler (not in the level of Mendes, Edgar) and it was also late in the fight where Lamas was not expecting it. I don't think Aldo can wait that long to take Conor down.
yes
I think he shows, it would just be to much drama if he didn't.
Following all the shadiness/happenings etc I just feel like he has to show up, dehydrated and weak or over weight limit or perfectly on target etc. He has to make it.
The analysis was pretty spot on I would say Conor showed he has a very very good chin actually. Mendes hits very hard and Conor weathered it. I also think Mendes's wrestling and ground game are very high level. Not BJJ high level but still MMA high level. Hell I can't see any of those Alpha Male guys not being extremely slick on the ground.
Conor seemed a bit like a lost fish on the ground barely defending and getting passed with relative ease however his defense to the sub attempts showed he knew what he was doing. Maybe the knee really did hinder him on the ground.
I'm not sold Conor and Aldo are equals on the feet if they both come in healthy. Several factors can come into play. Slight edge in pure skill to Aldo I believe however Conor might be able to get him to play his game and do well. Aldo might get reckless if Conor makes him chase him a bit.
JoeDingo - I heard he fought with a broken back. spinal.I heard he ate children as well
thaVANILLA Gorilla -You can if you're in a "living death."HandyDarsh -You can't just wake up dead.ShoreBreaker420 - I think he'll show up missingMight even wake up dead IMO
orcus - Why wouldn't he?
Believe it or not, just because Conor says he's scared, doesn't make it true.
True, but it doesn't mean it can't be true either.